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Economist: The country is almost broke

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Redman
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Re: Economist: The country is almost broke

Postby Redman » April 12th, 2021, 7:38 am

paid_influencer wrote:who deals with all the excrement from cruise ships. where does the crap go


Parliament.

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Re: Economist: The country is almost broke

Postby elec2020 » April 12th, 2021, 7:42 am

The_Honourable wrote:
SuperiorMan wrote:What do you guys think of this?


https://guardian.co.tt/news/imbert-dism ... e8c9bdfd89

Finance Minister Colm Imbert has dismissed information in yesterday’s Guardian on the International Monetary Fund. He claimed it was misleading.

The article stated that although the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected economic growth of 2.1 per cent for T&T this year, economist Dr Roger Hosein has warned that the economy is in dire straits.

Hosein said while he had great respect for the IMF’s projections, he believes the agency is being “overly optimistic” about T&T’s economic outlook.

Imbert, via a Tweet, subsequently stated that in an attempt to discredit the IMF’s forecast of growth in the T&T economy in 2021, an ‘expert’ falsely claimed that “our economy is 40 per cent lower now than in 2007, when in fact our GDP is eight per cent higher now than then.”

Imbert didn’t respond to messages seeking further information.

Minister in the Ministry of Finance Brian Manning also tweeted on the article, “Convenient use of IMF figures seem to be the order of the day.”

Manning later told Guardian Media there was no in-depth analysis.


very true about Roger Hosein. anyone who went UWI St.Augustine (he taught Math Methods 1 and he was in charge of the international trade program in the econ department) would say that you take this man's views with a pinch of salt. u could immediately tell from day 1 where this man allegiances were. and in an earlier post i questioned how Roger knew what the IMF's forecasting approach for their WEO was as i doubt this is public knowledge (i did a soft search for it and found nothing). Case in point, imbert is correct... GDP in 2007 was about $137 million. the latest figures (2019) but it at $157. so this is not a 30 to 40 per cent decline. Take whatever u see from Hosein with a pinch of salt. he does just make whatever figure he feel.

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Re: Economist: The country is almost broke

Postby bluefete » April 12th, 2021, 8:11 am

hover11 wrote:Why is no one mentioning a devaluation, the TT Dollar is heavily overvalued whether we like it or not it is inevitable


In the Business Guardian of April 8th 2021, pg. BG4 is an article called "Fear of Political Suicide Hampering Action on the Forex rate".

Basically, it states that Rowley & Imbert are afraid to devalue because history shows whenever it happened the party that did it lost the next election.

Also from before:

https://www.guardian.co.tt/news/tell-us ... 8252277cf5

Tell us the truth please
by

Curtis Williams
39 days ago
Wed Mar 03 2021

Why is it so hard for politicians to simply tell the country the truth? Why is government and governance so full of smoke and mirrors and how do those who play these games not see that it has the deleterious effects on institutions and trust in government? Do we not see that these smoke and mirrors ultimately hurt the citizenry and the country’s economy?

I ask these questions fully aware that in the words of former Prime Minister Basdeo Panday politics has a morality of its own, but as Ian Narine points out in his article that appears in this week’s publication of the Business Guardian, one of the central challenges of the country is its political economy.

Let us look at two issues, both inter-related and government’s approach the them which threatens the country’s economic survival. The forex challenge and fiscal responsibility.

The fact is the demand for foreign exchange, particularly United States dollars outstrips supply. The Minister of Finance Colm Imbert has simply told us that the Government is not prepared to depreciate the exchange rate. He defends this position based on studies showing that the country’s economy will not benefit from it because it will not add to its competitiveness and would hurt the most vulnerable in the society and individuals on fixed incomes.


What the minister fails to do is to tell us the truth. The reality that his failure to fix the fiscal side of the equation, the lack of tight monetary policy that was required prior to the covid-19 pandemic and importantly his failure to generate new growth poles or investments are why the country is in no position today to fix the forex challenge and why this unsustainable use of our official reserves will bring us to disaster if we do not act soon. Add to that the problems with the ease of doing business and we are at a virtual stalemate.

To get a better perspective it is instructive to look back at the debate when the TT dollar was floated in 1993. The debate in the Lower House of the Parliament took place on Gloria Saturday as the government used the long Easter weekend to calm the markets.

At the time of the float/devaluation ( I use the term interchangeably and admittedly loosely in an effort at simplicity) there were some crucial things which the government had done that does not now exist and compounds the country’s difficulties.

The Government and Central Bank had significantly reduced the money supply. Unlike today where there is significant liquidity in the banking system with lots of TT dollars chasing US dollars, this was not the case in 1993. There was in fact a reduction in the money supply by 6.6 per cent in 1992, the year before the devaluation.

Secondly, in 1993 the country was living within its means. The Patrick Manning administration had continued the fiscal restraint and structural adjustment of the NAR to the point where in 1993 the budget deficit had shrunk to zero.

Like today inflation remains low and similarly Capital flight took place in the years leading up to the devaluation and floating of the currency.

Former finance minister Wendell Mottley is the one who led to flotation of the dollar and as he kicked off debate in 1993 he said; “Studies which we had commissioned revealed that over the last five years, this country lost over US $1 billion in capital flight, and although the studies did not review the period before, I would imagine the situation was probably even larger then. Capital has become more fluid with all these developments such as we have illustrated here. Exchange control is an anachronism and we have to recognise that. We cannot rail against it; we have to adapt and point our ship in another direction. Exchange controls effectively only stop the small man who is trying to move a small amount of actual physical currency. It has not proved to be any restraint on larger movements of capital. That is the international experience.”

Another crucial part of the strategy that led to the successful devaluation/float of the dollar was the Manning administration’s moves to revitalise the energy sector, particularly the downstream energy sector. That meant two things, foreign direct investment, or inflows of US dollars and also jobs in a situation when the unemployment rate was closer 20 per cent.

Former prime minister Patrick Manning told the House in 1993, “In addition to the measures outlined by the Minister of Finance in the budget for 1993, which are already having an effect in stimulating construction activity, there is a field in which T&T stands out as different from the rest of the Caribbean: being able to utilise our gas resources for processing industries of one type or another. During the construction stage of many of those plants, there are higher levels of employment. It is not that alone.

“We announced a memorandum of understanding in respect of liquefied natural gas, There is every likelihood that is going to lead to an investment decision in 1994. If that should happen, again in the construction stage we would be producing jobs in excess of 1,000.

“In fact, for the LNG plant it is estimated that the figure will be about 1,500 jobs. More than that, not too long from now, Government is going to make more announcements in this regard that take cognisance of the fact that we have a resource of technical manpower here that can be applied to the construction of processing plants and in the short to medium-term, provide a level of jobs, which can cushion the impact on the unemployment levels to which the country is subject.”

Last week we had the Minister of Public Utilities Marvin Gonzales announcing major changes to the management of the Water and Sewerage Authority (WASA).


Gonzales said the Cabinet had decided on a change of the management and was not going to take the strong steps suggested by the Cabinet subcommittee.

This is another example of a government kicking the can down the road and giving people false hope that the situation can continue.

To be sure this Government is not alone and the unsustainable level of transfers and subsidies has to be dealt with urgently. As much as the government tries to play good cop/bad cop by complaining and railing about the level of wastage in the system, they are part of the problem.

They will do nothing to deal with this issue unless it’s in their political interest or collapse is upon us.

As a country we did it before. We pulled back from the brink. We face the same issues now as we did in 1993. We are an uncompetitive economy.

I end with this quote from Mottley when he spoke in Parliament on the act to amend the Central Bank Act and allow for the flotation of the TT dollar:

“This conviction in no way fails to acknowledge the difficulties and risks which inhere in this strategy. Success will require all the entrepreneurial skill, managerial talent and mastery of technology in particular niches which we are able to command. It will require us to be clever and also to have some good fortune. We will need to be resilient to deal with the disappointments which must come and humble in success, because we will need to know that the international game of competitiveness is a never-ending game, and your comparative advantage today does not last forever. The whole country needs to understand this.”

Maybe we should have heeded his warning.

ALSO:

https://www.guardian.co.tt/news/forex-f ... a47f576cab

Forex frustration
by

Joel Julien
46 days ago
Wed Feb 24 2021

Forex conversion


Former finance minister suggests “dollar swap” with the US

Economist says country at risk of crisis by 2022

Foreign exchange woes symptom of weak energy sector

T&T should do a “dollar swap” with the United States to address our ongoing foreign exchange woes, former finance minister Prof Winston Dookeran has suggested.


Dookeran said the country needs to “take a diplomatic initiative to apply for a currency swap under the Foreign and International Monetary Authorities (FIMA repo facility) arrangement with the Federal Reserve Bank” if we are to increase the capacity for net inflow of foreign exchange and capital.

“Because bank funding markets are global and have at times broken down, disrupting the provision of credit to households and businesses in the United States and other countries, the Federal Reserve has entered into agreements to establish central bank liquidity swap lines with a number of foreign central banks,” the Federal Reserve stated.

The Federal Reserve said swap lines were designed to improve “liquidity conditions in dollar funding markets in the US and abroad by providing foreign central banks with the capacity to deliver US dollar funding to institutions in their jurisdictions during times of market stress.”

These arrangements have helped to ease strains in financial markets and mitigate their effects on economic conditions, the Federal reserve stated.

“The swap lines support financial stability and serve as a prudent liquidity backstop,” the Federal Reserve added.

But how does it work?

The Federal Reserve provides US dollars to a foreign Central Bank.

At the same time, the foreign central bank provides the equivalent amount of funds in its currency to the Federal Reserve, based on the market exchange rate at the time of the transaction.

The parties agree to swap back these quantities of their two currencies at a specified date in the future using the same exchange rate as in the first transaction.

Because the terms of this second transaction are set in advance, fluctuations in exchange rates during the interim do not alter the eventual payments.

Accordingly, these swap operations carry no exchange rate or other market risks.

The Federal Reserve stated that helping to stabilise foreign dollar markets, these swap lines also play a role in supporting foreign economic conditions, which also positively benefit the US economy through many channels, including confidence and trade.


The Federal Reserve operates these swap lines under the authority of Section 14 of the Federal Reserve Act and in compliance with authorisations, policies, and procedures established by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).

Since 1994, the Federal Reserve has had bilateral currency swap agreements with Canada, Mexico, established under the North American Framework Agreement (NAFA).

In December 2007 this was expanded and dollar liquidity swap lines were established to provide liquidity in US dollars to overseas markets.

Last March the Federal Reserve announced the establishment of temporary US dollar liquidity arrangements with various central banks around the world including Australia, Brazil, and Singapore.

“These facilities, like those already established between the Federal Reserve and other central banks, are designed to help lessen strains in global US dollar funding markets, thereby mitigating the effects of these strains on the supply of credit to households and businesses, both domestically and abroad,” the Federal Reserve stated.

These facilities were provided up to US$60 billion.

Economist Marla Dukharan said T&T is at risk of a default/ balance of payments crisis by the end of 2022.

“Already, T&T is one of the most difficult places in the Caribbean to source USD. A balance of payments crisis occurs when a country does not have enough foreign currency to meet its foreign currency denominated obligations, either debt or otherwise,” she stated.

“Our declining FX reserves (and Heritage and Stabilisation Fund) in the context of rising debt and persistent weakness in our exports, suggest that at some point we will run out of foreign currency, if nothing is done,” she said.

Dukharan said the cause of the country’s foreign exchange problem is not the pandemic or any external factor but rather as a result of poor policy-making by this Government and the one before.

Dukharan said devaluation is but one policy option, but by itself will achieve nothing positive.

“We need to balance the fiscal accounts, restructure debt to eliminate the primary deficit, address deep and long-standing ease of doing business constraints, and only then will addressing the overvalued TTD make any sense,” she said.


“And a one-off devaluation is not the answer in my view. A return to the auction system even today, would begin to put things on a more sustainable path, and this is what I would recommend. This mechanism worked well until it was dismantled by the previous Central Bank Governor, and maintained by this administration, even though the current minister of finance promised to reintroduce it in his first budget speech in 2015,” she stated.

But how did this country’s foreign exchange problems start in the first place?

“That forex problem we are experiencing is directly rated to the health of the energy sector,” former energy minister Kevin Ramnarine sated.

“Our commercial banks get foreign exchange from two sources, the first source is the Central Bank, the Central Bank injects foreign exchange into the commercial banking sector and the second source would be when the energy companies sell foreign exchange to the bank,” he said.

Energy companies sell the foreign exchange to get TT dollars to run their operations in the country.

Ramnarine said both flows have been reduced.

“The reason for that is there is less activity in the energy sector, there is less drilling taking place, drilling is down by a factor of almost five compared to six years ago, there is less turnaround activity taking place in the Point Lisas Industrial Estate which also drives activity levels in the energy sector,” he said.

Ramnarine said 75 per cent of the holders of the VAT bonds issued last year were energy companies so when they sold those bods they received TT dollars so there was less need for them to approach the banks for local currency.

Dukharan said our foreign exchange reserves have been steadily declining since December 2014, when it had reached an all-time high of US$11.5 billion or 13 months of import cover.

“The level of FX reserves now stands around US$7.2 billion, returning to the level of February/March 2008, following an uptick from the June 2020 US$500 million bond issue. This US$7.2 billion level represents a decline of 37 per cent from the all-time high in December 2014,” Dukharan stated.

“If we back out the impact of US$500 million in debt issued in June 2020, and look at what has been earned organically by our economy, we can see that we have been losing on average over US$70 million per month for over five years. This is not a sustainable situation, and it will end in default / balance of payments crisis if maintained,” she stated.

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Re: Economist: The country is almost broke

Postby elec2020 » April 12th, 2021, 8:29 am

if you devalue u also risk slashing down wealth overnight. for instance, if i bought a BMW (house) valued at lets say US$ 100,000 ($US 1,000,0000) before the devaluation, after devaluation (of lets say 30 per cent) it now becomes worth US$70,000 (US$ 700,000). devaluation is not something to be taken lightly as it will also have ramifications for government debt, loans, mortgages, insurance policies, pensions, etc. u could argue that the best time to devalue may have been between 2010 and 2014 (when oil prices were nice) but hindsight is 20/20. now is not the time to devalue at all.

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Re: Economist: The country is almost broke

Postby bluefete » April 12th, 2021, 8:40 am

Tell Roger Hosein and the other Economists that, nah!

If we had dropped the rate by 0.50c per year / every 2 years, it may have been manageable.

But any devaluation now would lead to oppressive hardships for the POOR.

But say what. Those same poor would go back and put left foot right foot and rising suns.


elec2020 wrote:if you devalue u also risk slashing down wealth overnight. for instance, if i bought a BMW (house) valued at lets say US$ 100,000 ($US 1,000,0000) before the devaluation, after devaluation (of lets say 30 per cent) it now becomes worth US$70,000 (US$ 700,000). devaluation is not something to be taken lightly as it will also have ramifications for government debt, loans, mortgages, insurance policies, pensions, etc. u could argue that the best time to devalue may have been between 2010 and 2014 (when oil prices were nice) but hindsight is 20/20. now is not the time to devalue at all.

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Re: Economist: The country is almost broke

Postby sMASH » April 12th, 2021, 9:17 am

and with no real means to earn money cause tourism in a rut and even when covid eases not not gonna be that big a thing cause the basic kfc server attitude our service industry has, and the oil gas not gonna grow , its in decline, the 2025 gas gonna be the last significant find we will get. all finds will be merely trying to level holes, when u cant get the US to cover ur bills, the tt gonna come crashing down. instant venezuela.

u take it in small bite size chunks now, or u let it all come falling down in one tsunami. by that time, all ministers families outside, money barrowed to off shore accounts, no need to worry then.

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Re: Economist: The country is almost broke

Postby Redress10 » April 12th, 2021, 9:20 am

The thing about devaluation is that it seems that people need it just to access more forex "to buy ting". Trinis still haven't convinced me that they understand the importance of forex and how crucial it is manage it for economic stability. People seem to be wanting diversification and devaluation just so that they cud access more forex to continue to spend.

How are we going to transform the economy to decrease our reliance on foreign exchange? How are we transitioning away from the high costs of automobiles with more accessible EV or better public transport options. If people no longer need to spend upwards of 35000usd on vehicle does that now save a considerable amount of forex that can be invested instead for instance.

Greater forex earnings is to better your country's balance of payments accounts. That money could now improve the heritage and stabilization fund. That money could be usee in an infrastructure fund that deals with maintaining and updating the country's infrastructure without it having to come out of the treasury each year.

All of these things we should be looking at in terms of our economic future sustainability.

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Re: Economist: The country is almost broke

Postby zoom rader » April 12th, 2021, 9:35 am

The level of idiots is greater than sensible posters this morning.

Redman wey you

Cum put these posters back in order

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Re: Economist: The country is almost broke

Postby elec2020 » April 12th, 2021, 9:37 am

bluefete wrote:Tell Roger Hosein and the other Economists that, nah!

If we had dropped the rate by 0.50c per year / every 2 years, it may have been manageable.

But any devaluation now would lead to oppressive hardships for the POOR.

But say what. Those same poor would go back and put left foot right foot and rising suns.


elec2020 wrote:if you devalue u also risk slashing down wealth overnight. for instance, if i bought a BMW (house) valued at lets say US$ 100,000 ($US 1,000,0000) before the devaluation, after devaluation (of lets say 30 per cent) it now becomes worth US$70,000 (US$ 700,000). devaluation is not something to be taken lightly as it will also have ramifications for government debt, loans, mortgages, insurance policies, pensions, etc. u could argue that the best time to devalue may have been between 2010 and 2014 (when oil prices were nice) but hindsight is 20/20. now is not the time to devalue at all.


u think i does take on Roger seriously. the man was a tunts during my undergrad (almost a decade ago) and still reamins a tunts now. he preys on the fact that most people take what a published economist says as gospel. imbert show him up though with them 2007 GDP figures. LOL

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Re: Economist: The country is almost broke

Postby zoom rader » April 12th, 2021, 9:42 am

elec2020 wrote:
bluefete wrote:Tell Roger Hosein and the other Economists that, nah!

If we had dropped the rate by 0.50c per year / every 2 years, it may have been manageable.

But any devaluation now would lead to oppressive hardships for the POOR.

But say what. Those same poor would go back and put left foot right foot and rising suns.


elec2020 wrote:if you devalue u also risk slashing down wealth overnight. for instance, if i bought a BMW (house) valued at lets say US$ 100,000 ($US 1,000,0000) before the devaluation, after devaluation (of lets say 30 per cent) it now becomes worth US$70,000 (US$ 700,000). devaluation is not something to be taken lightly as it will also have ramifications for government debt, loans, mortgages, insurance policies, pensions, etc. u could argue that the best time to devalue may have been between 2010 and 2014 (when oil prices were nice) but hindsight is 20/20. now is not the time to devalue at all.


u think i does take on Roger seriously. the man was a tunts during my undergrad (almost a decade ago) and still reamins a tunts now. he preys on the fact that most people take what a published economist says as gospel. imbert show him up though with them 2007 GDP figures. LOL
But folks take whatever the red government or the media pumps out as gospel with our any research as to who are these story book writers.

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Re: Economist: The country is almost broke

Postby Dohplaydat » April 12th, 2021, 11:10 am

elec2020 wrote:
bluefete wrote:Tell Roger Hosein and the other Economists that, nah!

If we had dropped the rate by 0.50c per year / every 2 years, it may have been manageable.

But any devaluation now would lead to oppressive hardships for the POOR.

But say what. Those same poor would go back and put left foot right foot and rising suns.


elec2020 wrote:if you devalue u also risk slashing down wealth overnight. for instance, if i bought a BMW (house) valued at lets say US$ 100,000 ($US 1,000,0000) before the devaluation, after devaluation (of lets say 30 per cent) it now becomes worth US$70,000 (US$ 700,000). devaluation is not something to be taken lightly as it will also have ramifications for government debt, loans, mortgages, insurance policies, pensions, etc. u could argue that the best time to devalue may have been between 2010 and 2014 (when oil prices were nice) but hindsight is 20/20. now is not the time to devalue at all.


u think i does take on Roger seriously. the man was a tunts during my undergrad (almost a decade ago) and still reamins a tunts now. he preys on the fact that most people take what a published economist says as gospel. imbert show him up though with them 2007 GDP figures. LOL


It is now SHOCKING that an economic degree holder as you claim to be doesn't realize that Imbert's figures are not adjusted for inflation.

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Re: Economist: The country is almost broke

Postby Dohplaydat » April 12th, 2021, 11:16 am

A few points about devaluation:

Currency devaluation reduces importation encourages exportation and increases interest rate. However, inflation and unemployment are the side effects of devaluation in the short run.

To combat does ill effects it is recommended that discretionary policies, such as combination of monetary and fiscal measures be utilized to curb the associated increase in inflation.

Typically governments use devaluation when they have exhausted all other methods to claw their way out of a recession.

Our dollar is severely overvalued and with no way out other than rise in oil and gas prices, we ultimately have no choice.

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Re: Economist: The country is almost broke

Postby Dohplaydat » April 12th, 2021, 11:18 am

adnj wrote:
Dohplaydat wrote:
adnj wrote:
Dohplaydat wrote:
adnj wrote:
Dohplaydat wrote:
Redress10 wrote:6 months of the year is hurricane season. As we tend to sit outside the hurricane belt all sort of pleasure craft and marine vessels could be stored here for a fee. Even tourist cud come here knowing that chances of getting stuck in a hurricane are slim.

Do we take advantage of this? Nope.

Do we even care? Nobody wants to do the work but everybody want to eat and drive the best. Where will the money come from?


Tobago is also a safe haven for hurricanes, them missing out on so much tourism dollars by not having one.
No comparison to Aruba, Curacao and Bonaire.


Still worth doing, look how many yachts are docked here in Chaguaramas.

ABC islands aren't that much safer than us:

Image



The Gulf of Paria is a protected body of water. Tobago is not near the coast while Aruba, Curacao and Bonaire are.

Tobago does not offer the geography to shelter a vessel more than 30 feet long during a storm.


Again you are wrong.

Canoe Bay was identified by coastal engineers as the proposed site for construction, it just never got off the ground. If a noteworthy storm is approaching these same yachties who store their boats in Chagauaramas during hurricane season can more easily move their boats from Tobago to Chaguaramas.

The fact is there is a huge demand for a marina in Tobago and we are falling asleep on its potential.


If it isn't being built then you should recognize that the demand is insufficient but you keep flogging that horse all you want.


It is being built - https://newsday.co.tt/2018/11/17/marina ... ay-tobago/

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Re: Economist: The country is almost broke

Postby elec2020 » April 12th, 2021, 11:31 am

Dohplaydat wrote:
elec2020 wrote:
bluefete wrote:Tell Roger Hosein and the other Economists that, nah!

If we had dropped the rate by 0.50c per year / every 2 years, it may have been manageable.

But any devaluation now would lead to oppressive hardships for the POOR.

But say what. Those same poor would go back and put left foot right foot and rising suns.


elec2020 wrote:if you devalue u also risk slashing down wealth overnight. for instance, if i bought a BMW (house) valued at lets say US$ 100,000 ($US 1,000,0000) before the devaluation, after devaluation (of lets say 30 per cent) it now becomes worth US$70,000 (US$ 700,000). devaluation is not something to be taken lightly as it will also have ramifications for government debt, loans, mortgages, insurance policies, pensions, etc. u could argue that the best time to devalue may have been between 2010 and 2014 (when oil prices were nice) but hindsight is 20/20. now is not the time to devalue at all.


u think i does take on Roger seriously. the man was a tunts during my undergrad (almost a decade ago) and still reamins a tunts now. he preys on the fact that most people take what a published economist says as gospel. imbert show him up though with them 2007 GDP figures. LOL


It is now SHOCKING that an economic degree holder as you claim to be doesn't realize that Imbert's figures are not adjusted for inflation.


ah boy. doesn't take long for the fools to come crowing. so. where is the publicly available information. from national stat compilers like CSO and CBTT on constant prices GDP prior to 2012 (that is GDP adjusted for inflation)? i am not too sure why but that information does not exist (maybe because they haven't done those calculations for earlier years since the government revised the way they calculate GDP a few years ago). so as it stands, using publicly available information compiled by domestic organisations, current prices GDP shows that Roger was wrong. to humor u, lets use constant prices GDP data from IMF. For 2007 imf estimates that constant prices GDP for TnT was 164.3 and for 2020 it was 142.3. this is a 13.4 per cent decrease. while 13 and 30 sometimes sound similar they mean different thins. SO ONCE AGAIN. Roger is a dimwit and i am so grateful that i never took his teachings (making up figures and theories) to heart.
Last edited by elec2020 on April 12th, 2021, 12:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Economist: The country is almost broke

Postby elec2020 » April 12th, 2021, 11:38 am

Dohplaydat wrote:A few points about devaluation:

Currency devaluation reduces importation encourages exportation and increases interest rate. However, inflation and unemployment are the side effects of devaluation in the short run.

To combat does ill effects it is recommended that discretionary policies, such as combination of monetary and fiscal measures be utilized to curb the associated increase in inflation.

Typically governments use devaluation when they have exhausted all other methods to claw their way out of a recession.

Our dollar is severely overvalued and with no way out other than rise in oil and gas prices, we ultimately have no choice.


what fiscal measures? the government has said on several occasions that fiscal space is limited. the government has been recording annual deficits since 2012... running debt to just over 90 per cent of GDP. now u want more expansionary fiscal policies to temper unemployment and inflation caused by a devaluation. u calling for more debt on top of a devaluation which will already increase public debt. u want us to go to IMF? u are an armchair economist. u have NO CLUE on what u are talking about.

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Re: Economist: The country is almost broke

Postby elec2020 » April 12th, 2021, 11:45 am

zoom rader wrote:
elec2020 wrote:
bluefete wrote:Tell Roger Hosein and the other Economists that, nah!

If we had dropped the rate by 0.50c per year / every 2 years, it may have been manageable.

But any devaluation now would lead to oppressive hardships for the POOR.

But say what. Those same poor would go back and put left foot right foot and rising suns.


elec2020 wrote:if you devalue u also risk slashing down wealth overnight. for instance, if i bought a BMW (house) valued at lets say US$ 100,000 ($US 1,000,0000) before the devaluation, after devaluation (of lets say 30 per cent) it now becomes worth US$70,000 (US$ 700,000). devaluation is not something to be taken lightly as it will also have ramifications for government debt, loans, mortgages, insurance policies, pensions, etc. u could argue that the best time to devalue may have been between 2010 and 2014 (when oil prices were nice) but hindsight is 20/20. now is not the time to devalue at all.


u think i does take on Roger seriously. the man was a tunts during my undergrad (almost a decade ago) and still reamins a tunts now. he preys on the fact that most people take what a published economist says as gospel. imbert show him up though with them 2007 GDP figures. LOL
But folks take whatever the red government or the media pumps out as gospel with our any research as to who are these story book writers.


i never read that book. as much as possible i try to stay balanced. and go on the reports/data from balanced institutions/organisations to make my assessments. alas governmens know that the average man/woman is uninformed. so they can get away with misinformation

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Re: Economist: The country is almost broke

Postby sMASH » April 12th, 2021, 12:14 pm

lies! is Iguana Tails from the Mailbox, rite tru

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Re: Economist: The country is almost broke

Postby Habit7 » April 12th, 2021, 12:19 pm

Image

We are still lamenting again?

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Re: Economist: The country is almost broke

Postby De Dragon » April 12th, 2021, 12:21 pm

pugboy wrote:u really taking on impsbert?
the man say around elections time everything real good and we well on the. way to recovery

Funnily enough this same dumbo Impsy was saying pretty much the same thing as Hosein a couple weeks ago. :roll:

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Re: Economist: The country is almost broke

Postby Dohplaydat » April 12th, 2021, 12:28 pm

elec2020 wrote:
Dohplaydat wrote:
elec2020 wrote:
bluefete wrote:Tell Roger Hosein and the other Economists that, nah!

If we had dropped the rate by 0.50c per year / every 2 years, it may have been manageable.

But any devaluation now would lead to oppressive hardships for the POOR.

But say what. Those same poor would go back and put left foot right foot and rising suns.


elec2020 wrote:if you devalue u also risk slashing down wealth overnight. for instance, if i bought a BMW (house) valued at lets say US$ 100,000 ($US 1,000,0000) before the devaluation, after devaluation (of lets say 30 per cent) it now becomes worth US$70,000 (US$ 700,000). devaluation is not something to be taken lightly as it will also have ramifications for government debt, loans, mortgages, insurance policies, pensions, etc. u could argue that the best time to devalue may have been between 2010 and 2014 (when oil prices were nice) but hindsight is 20/20. now is not the time to devalue at all.


u think i does take on Roger seriously. the man was a tunts during my undergrad (almost a decade ago) and still reamins a tunts now. he preys on the fact that most people take what a published economist says as gospel. imbert show him up though with them 2007 GDP figures. LOL


It is now SHOCKING that an economic degree holder as you claim to be doesn't realize that Imbert's figures are not adjusted for inflation.


ah boy. doesn't take long for the fools to come crowing. so. where is the publicly available information. from national stat compilers like CSO and CBTT on constant prices GDP prior to 2012 (that is GDP adjusted for inflation)? i am not too sure why but that information does not exist (maybe because they haven't done those calculations for earlier years since the government revised the way they calculate GDP a few years ago). so as it stands, using publicly available information compiled by domestic organisations, current prices GDP shows that Roger was wrong. to humor u, lets use constant prices GDP data from IMF. For 2007 imf estimates that constant prices GDP for TnT was 164.3 and for 2020 it was 142.3. this is a 13.4 per cent decrease. while 13 and 30 sometimes sound similar they mean different thins. SO ONCE AGAIN. Roger is a dimwit and i am so grateful that i never took his teachings (making up figures and theories) to heart.


Good work. So Imbert is wrong as he is trying convince you of growth.

I too can't find a data source that gives Roger's 40% figure, but I suspect it was a figure he calculated by adjusting TT earnings for inflation.

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Re: Economist: The country is almost broke

Postby zoom rader » April 12th, 2021, 12:36 pm

Bit by bit the truth is coming out but we still have red government idiots as yourself who continues to believe Rowlair and his bunch of crooks.
Habit7 wrote:Image

We are still lamenting again?

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Re: Economist: The country is almost broke

Postby elec2020 » April 12th, 2021, 12:47 pm

Dohplaydat wrote:
elec2020 wrote:
Dohplaydat wrote:
elec2020 wrote:
bluefete wrote:Tell Roger Hosein and the other Economists that, nah!

If we had dropped the rate by 0.50c per year / every 2 years, it may have been manageable.

But any devaluation now would lead to oppressive hardships for the POOR.

But say what. Those same poor would go back and put left foot right foot and rising suns.


elec2020 wrote:if you devalue u also risk slashing down wealth overnight. for instance, if i bought a BMW (house) valued at lets say US$ 100,000 ($US 1,000,0000) before the devaluation, after devaluation (of lets say 30 per cent) it now becomes worth US$70,000 (US$ 700,000). devaluation is not something to be taken lightly as it will also have ramifications for government debt, loans, mortgages, insurance policies, pensions, etc. u could argue that the best time to devalue may have been between 2010 and 2014 (when oil prices were nice) but hindsight is 20/20. now is not the time to devalue at all.


u think i does take on Roger seriously. the man was a tunts during my undergrad (almost a decade ago) and still reamins a tunts now. he preys on the fact that most people take what a published economist says as gospel. imbert show him up though with them 2007 GDP figures. LOL


It is now SHOCKING that an economic degree holder as you claim to be doesn't realize that Imbert's figures are not adjusted for inflation.


ah boy. doesn't take long for the fools to come crowing. so. where is the publicly available information. from national stat compilers like CSO and CBTT on constant prices GDP prior to 2012 (that is GDP adjusted for inflation)? i am not too sure why but that information does not exist (maybe because they haven't done those calculations for earlier years since the government revised the way they calculate GDP a few years ago). so as it stands, using publicly available information compiled by domestic organisations, current prices GDP shows that Roger was wrong. to humor u, lets use constant prices GDP data from IMF. For 2007 imf estimates that constant prices GDP for TnT was 164.3 and for 2020 it was 142.3. this is a 13.4 per cent decrease. while 13 and 30 sometimes sound similar they mean different thins. SO ONCE AGAIN. Roger is a dimwit and i am so grateful that i never took his teachings (making up figures and theories) to heart.


Good work. So Imbert is wrong as he is trying convince you of growth.

I too can't find a data source that gives Roger's 40% figure, but I suspect it was a figure he calculated by adjusting TT earnings for inflation.


i don't care if imbert claimed that there was growth or not. my point was that Roger was fabricating as he usually does. u slated me and questioned my credentials and thus my ability to speak on this issue. now that i correct u and put u in your place u trying to shift the goal posts? for future reference don't talk to an economist about economics if u not in the field.

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Re: Economist: The country is almost broke

Postby Habit7 » April 12th, 2021, 12:49 pm

For our GDP to surge, oil and gas prices need to be buoyant and our production needs to increase. Our production is expected to start increasing this year into 2025. But as recent events are showing us that there are things you can't plan for.

If Soufriere continues for months or worst years, it could threaten air transport in the region and even TT. This will further cripple our service sector as not even flights to Tobago will be available. Changing Imbert or the govt doesn't affect none of those factors.

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Re: Economist: The country is almost broke

Postby De Dragon » April 12th, 2021, 12:50 pm

elec2020 wrote:
Dohplaydat wrote:
elec2020 wrote:
Dohplaydat wrote:
elec2020 wrote:
bluefete wrote:Tell Roger Hosein and the other Economists that, nah!

If we had dropped the rate by 0.50c per year / every 2 years, it may have been manageable.

But any devaluation now would lead to oppressive hardships for the POOR.

But say what. Those same poor would go back and put left foot right foot and rising suns.


elec2020 wrote:if you devalue u also risk slashing down wealth overnight. for instance, if i bought a BMW (house) valued at lets say US$ 100,000 ($US 1,000,0000) before the devaluation, after devaluation (of lets say 30 per cent) it now becomes worth US$70,000 (US$ 700,000). devaluation is not something to be taken lightly as it will also have ramifications for government debt, loans, mortgages, insurance policies, pensions, etc. u could argue that the best time to devalue may have been between 2010 and 2014 (when oil prices were nice) but hindsight is 20/20. now is not the time to devalue at all.


u think i does take on Roger seriously. the man was a tunts during my undergrad (almost a decade ago) and still reamins a tunts now. he preys on the fact that most people take what a published economist says as gospel. imbert show him up though with them 2007 GDP figures. LOL


It is now SHOCKING that an economic degree holder as you claim to be doesn't realize that Imbert's figures are not adjusted for inflation.


ah boy. doesn't take long for the fools to come crowing. so. where is the publicly available information. from national stat compilers like CSO and CBTT on constant prices GDP prior to 2012 (that is GDP adjusted for inflation)? i am not too sure why but that information does not exist (maybe because they haven't done those calculations for earlier years since the government revised the way they calculate GDP a few years ago). so as it stands, using publicly available information compiled by domestic organisations, current prices GDP shows that Roger was wrong. to humor u, lets use constant prices GDP data from IMF. For 2007 imf estimates that constant prices GDP for TnT was 164.3 and for 2020 it was 142.3. this is a 13.4 per cent decrease. while 13 and 30 sometimes sound similar they mean different thins. SO ONCE AGAIN. Roger is a dimwit and i am so grateful that i never took his teachings (making up figures and theories) to heart.


Good work. So Imbert is wrong as he is trying convince you of growth.

I too can't find a data source that gives Roger's 40% figure, but I suspect it was a figure he calculated by adjusting TT earnings for inflation.


i don't care if imbert claimed that there was growth or not. my point was that Roger was fabricating as he usually does. u slated me and questioned my credentials and thus my ability to speak on this issue. now that i correct u and put u in your place u trying to shift the goal posts? for future reference don't talk to an economist about economics if u not in the field.

Why do you feel the need to seek validation on this forum by constantly pointing out that you studied economics?

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Re: Economist: The country is almost broke

Postby Dohplaydat » April 12th, 2021, 12:55 pm

elec2020 wrote:
Dohplaydat wrote:
elec2020 wrote:
Dohplaydat wrote:
elec2020 wrote:
bluefete wrote:Tell Roger Hosein and the other Economists that, nah!

If we had dropped the rate by 0.50c per year / every 2 years, it may have been manageable.

But any devaluation now would lead to oppressive hardships for the POOR.

But say what. Those same poor would go back and put left foot right foot and rising suns.


elec2020 wrote:if you devalue u also risk slashing down wealth overnight. for instance, if i bought a BMW (house) valued at lets say US$ 100,000 ($US 1,000,0000) before the devaluation, after devaluation (of lets say 30 per cent) it now becomes worth US$70,000 (US$ 700,000). devaluation is not something to be taken lightly as it will also have ramifications for government debt, loans, mortgages, insurance policies, pensions, etc. u could argue that the best time to devalue may have been between 2010 and 2014 (when oil prices were nice) but hindsight is 20/20. now is not the time to devalue at all.


u think i does take on Roger seriously. the man was a tunts during my undergrad (almost a decade ago) and still reamins a tunts now. he preys on the fact that most people take what a published economist says as gospel. imbert show him up though with them 2007 GDP figures. LOL


It is now SHOCKING that an economic degree holder as you claim to be doesn't realize that Imbert's figures are not adjusted for inflation.


ah boy. doesn't take long for the fools to come crowing. so. where is the publicly available information. from national stat compilers like CSO and CBTT on constant prices GDP prior to 2012 (that is GDP adjusted for inflation)? i am not too sure why but that information does not exist (maybe because they haven't done those calculations for earlier years since the government revised the way they calculate GDP a few years ago). so as it stands, using publicly available information compiled by domestic organisations, current prices GDP shows that Roger was wrong. to humor u, lets use constant prices GDP data from IMF. For 2007 imf estimates that constant prices GDP for TnT was 164.3 and for 2020 it was 142.3. this is a 13.4 per cent decrease. while 13 and 30 sometimes sound similar they mean different thins. SO ONCE AGAIN. Roger is a dimwit and i am so grateful that i never took his teachings (making up figures and theories) to heart.


Good work. So Imbert is wrong as he is trying convince you of growth.

I too can't find a data source that gives Roger's 40% figure, but I suspect it was a figure he calculated by adjusting TT earnings for inflation.


i don't care if imbert claimed that there was growth or not. my point was that Roger was fabricating as he usually does. u slated me and questioned my credentials and thus my ability to speak on this issue. now that i correct u and put u in your place u trying to shift the goal posts? for future reference don't talk to an economist about economics if u not in the field.


You just do not sound like an economist, hence why I question you. You admit afterward when you did the research that imbert was wrong, I never said Roger was right. I don't know the guy, I don't know his agenda. I was pointing to to you how he might have arrived at his figure, that is all and I pointed our Imbert's figures were not adjusted for inflation.

Carry on.

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Re: Economist: The country is almost broke

Postby eliteauto » April 12th, 2021, 1:02 pm

Give us a rest with the long quotes or use spoiler tags nah, allyuh does behave like allyuh incapable of retaining a train of thought if you can't quote the entire convo

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Re: Economist: The country is almost broke

Postby elec2020 » April 12th, 2021, 1:42 pm

De Dragon wrote:
elec2020 wrote:
Dohplaydat wrote:
elec2020 wrote:
Dohplaydat wrote:
elec2020 wrote:
bluefete wrote:Tell Roger Hosein and the other Economists that, nah!

If we had dropped the rate by 0.50c per year / every 2 years, it may have been manageable.

But any devaluation now would lead to oppressive hardships for the POOR.

But say what. Those same poor would go back and put left foot right foot and rising suns.


elec2020 wrote:if you devalue u also risk slashing down wealth overnight. for instance, if i bought a BMW (house) valued at lets say US$ 100,000 ($US 1,000,0000) before the devaluation, after devaluation (of lets say 30 per cent) it now becomes worth US$70,000 (US$ 700,000). devaluation is not something to be taken lightly as it will also have ramifications for government debt, loans, mortgages, insurance policies, pensions, etc. u could argue that the best time to devalue may have been between 2010 and 2014 (when oil prices were nice) but hindsight is 20/20. now is not the time to devalue at all.


u think i does take on Roger seriously. the man was a tunts during my undergrad (almost a decade ago) and still reamins a tunts now. he preys on the fact that most people take what a published economist says as gospel. imbert show him up though with them 2007 GDP figures. LOL


It is now SHOCKING that an economic degree holder as you claim to be doesn't realize that Imbert's figures are not adjusted for inflation.


ah boy. doesn't take long for the fools to come crowing. so. where is the publicly available information. from national stat compilers like CSO and CBTT on constant prices GDP prior to 2012 (that is GDP adjusted for inflation)? i am not too sure why but that information does not exist (maybe because they haven't done those calculations for earlier years since the government revised the way they calculate GDP a few years ago). so as it stands, using publicly available information compiled by domestic organisations, current prices GDP shows that Roger was wrong. to humor u, lets use constant prices GDP data from IMF. For 2007 imf estimates that constant prices GDP for TnT was 164.3 and for 2020 it was 142.3. this is a 13.4 per cent decrease. while 13 and 30 sometimes sound similar they mean different thins. SO ONCE AGAIN. Roger is a dimwit and i am so grateful that i never took his teachings (making up figures and theories) to heart.


Good work. So Imbert is wrong as he is trying convince you of growth.

I too can't find a data source that gives Roger's 40% figure, but I suspect it was a figure he calculated by adjusting TT earnings for inflation.


i don't care if imbert claimed that there was growth or not. my point was that Roger was fabricating as he usually does. u slated me and questioned my credentials and thus my ability to speak on this issue. now that i correct u and put u in your place u trying to shift the goal posts? for future reference don't talk to an economist about economics if u not in the field.

Why do you feel the need to seek validation on this forum by constantly pointing out that you studied economics?


dohplaydat tried to discredit my knowledge on this area by stating that "It is now SHOCKING that an economic degree holder as you claim to be doesn't realize that Imbert's figures are not adjusted for inflation". all i did was defend my position. unless it is now illegal to do so

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Re: Economist: The country is almost broke

Postby Habit7 » April 12th, 2021, 1:51 pm

I realise on this forum ppl don't like when you use too many facts on an issue to make your opinion. They act like you are cheating or something.

They should be able to spew whatever unfounded notion they have on a subject and if you refute them with fact or authority in the area they get vex.

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Re: Economist: The country is almost broke

Postby alfa » April 12th, 2021, 2:00 pm

Habit7 wrote:I realise on this forum ppl don't like when you use too many facts on an issue to make your opinion. They act like you are cheating or something.

They should be able to spew whatever unfounded notion they have on a subject and if you refute them with fact or authority in the area they get vex.

You mean like when you said the government did NOT close petrorrin

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Re: Economist: The country is almost broke

Postby De Dragon » April 12th, 2021, 2:05 pm

Habit7 wrote:For our GDP to surge, oil and gas prices need to be buoyant and our production needs to increase. Our production is expected to start increasing this year into 2025. But as recent events are showing us that there are things you can't plan for.

If Soufriere continues for months or worst years, it could threaten air transport in the region and even TT. This will further cripple our service sector as not even flights to Tobago will be available. Changing Imbert or the govt doesn't affect none of those factors.

:? :?
That is exactly what proper management, in this case the GORTT is supposed to do :roll:
Oil/gas production has been falling constantly for the last decade. What did we do? Nothing but hope for the next find. What will happen when there is simply no more to find?
Soufriere aside, tourism has never been given the attention outside of Carnival, (which still is a loss making exercise anyway) that it deserves.

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