The official tropical weather thread 2020

[shake d livin wake d dead]

Should get some rain this week.....

[Duane 3NE 2NR]

[redmanjp]

Chilly January

https://trinidadexpress.com/news/local/prepare-for-chilly-january/article_37d5e66e-2f5f-11ea-bd68-67072de0c104.html?fbclid=IwAR1v3gHQHUfGITYZDbLUTwIPkUtgAg8b0gMLxsa-wUFHEC_KHhUKA7C6cWw

[The_Honourable]

//uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200105/8503400c50f740f873a90de3e8f058c7.jpg

Yo Duane, split the ched to 2020 nah.

Lots of gusts btw.

[shake d livin wake d dead]

Should get some rain this week.....

Just as I said...today is full moon...was expected

[matr1x]

Should get some rain this week.....

Just as I said...today is full moon...was expected

Very little correlation.

[pugboy]

but it happened

[De Dragon]

There was some seriously heavy wind gusts in Central today.

[shake d livin wake d dead]

Should get some rain this week.....

Just as I said...today is full moon...was expected

Very little correlation.

every full moon bro....farmer's experience.....look at my post since last year....ud see

[matr1x]

Again, no scientific correlation or causation

[maj. tom]

If anything, a full moon causes less rain. Higher tidal forces would cause higher pressure because of the pull of the global atmosphere toward the moon when it is above us in that phase. An infinitesimal increase. This adiabatic compression causes an increase in temperature. Again quite negligible, about 0.01 °C increase. Higher temperature means higher dew point. Hence less rain. All these data points have been recorded over many years.


Anyway, this full moon and rain thing has been studied since 1847 scientifically and every single study finds no correlation. There are innumerable papers and more than a century of recorded data across the world in every single country that has a weather station. It's just so annoying that we live in an age of enlightment and scientific research literally at our fingertips and some people willingly choose to remain ignorant and in the dark... And worse continue to spread the ages old BS to yet another generation.

I'll link sources tmrw if you really want to challenge.

[shake d livin wake d dead]

Everything on this earth is affected by the moon, from your body to the earth...ever spoke to a woman during her monthly cycle during a full moon or someone who is delivering a baby at that time....

Then try trimming plants before the moon and after, same applies with cutting grass( you cut after the full moon into the dark night, it will remain short for quite some time)...

If you have ever been into agriculture, you will know that farmers use the moon for planting and harvesting etc etc....I have been in it long enough to prove it myself...you can dictate how you want fruit trees to grow by simply planting in certain periods....farmers dont plant crops by guessing

[matr1x]

Everything on this earth is affected by the moon, from your body to the earth...ever spoke to a woman during her monthly cycle during a full moon or someone who is delivering a baby at that time....

Then try trimming plants before the moon and after, same applies with cutting grass( you cut after the full moon into the dark night, it will remain short for quite some time)...

If you have ever been into agriculture, you will know that farmers use the moon for planting and harvesting etc etc....I have been in it long enough to prove it myself...you can dictate how you want fruit trees to grow by simply planting in certain periods....farmers dont plant crops by guessing

You are messing up correlation and causation again

[meccalli]

Everything on this earth is affected by the moon, from your body to the earth...ever spoke to a woman during her monthly cycle during a full moon or someone who is delivering a baby at that time....

Then try trimming plants before the moon and after, same applies with cutting grass( you cut after the full moon into the dark night, it will remain short for quite some time)...

If you have ever been into agriculture, you will know that farmers use the moon for planting and harvesting etc etc....I have been in it long enough to prove it myself...you can dictate how you want fruit trees to grow by simply planting in certain periods....farmers dont plant crops by guessing

Not only farmers, I know fishermen who keep meticulous logs and rainfall in the lead up to and days after full moon generally tends to have rain. Many people don't see it when they're not spending full days out at sea, year round. The last time I was out, we were discussing this very topic with one of our captains.

[maj. tom]

^ all those things are true, because all life on earth evolved with the moon. The moon very much affects all life on the planet that can be affected by it's tidal effect, especially spawning cycles in animals and growth cycles in plants. Humans have used the moon to record time since we knew what time was. There is much speculation if the moon really does affect human behaviour as well, and it probably does because we evolved for millions of years using the moon as the night light to survive from being hunted and eaten. We then used it to hunt when we evolved bigger brains and waged war on the full moon phases, especially raids and now bombing missions.

But it does not affect rainfall patterns, and again there is overwhelming scientific data for more than a 150 years by every single weather recording station on earth since 1847 to prove that.

Just one single piece of scientific evidence, please just present 1 single piece of scientific evidence of it, and i swear i'll write to a physics journal and tell them that a Trinituner user found a way that the laws of thermodynamics were broken regarding adiabatic compression and temperature increase. They'll surely publish that and change the world forever.

[rspann]

I could bring proof that some of my neighbours act verrry strange at full moon. Real antics with them. That is where they get the word lunatic from?

[matr1x]

I could bring proof that some of my neighbours act verrry strange at full moon. Real antics with them. That is where they get the word lunatic from?

It was a mistaken belief. Same school as drilling head to cure mental illness

[maj. tom]

^^ tmrw we go check the Sunday Lunch thread and tell yuh rspann

[rspann]

I could bring proof that some of my neighbours act verrry strange at full moon. Real antics with them. That is where they get the word lunatic from?

It was a mistaken belief. Same school as drilling head to cure mental illness

They could do with some head drilling. I sure it won't get worse.

[rspann]

^^ tmrw we go check the Sunday Lunch thread and tell yuh rspann

[meccalli]

Impact of lunar cycle on the precipitation in India
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com ... 05GL024771
[14] The present study is an analysis of the spatial
patterns of the impact of lunar cycle on the amount and
frequency of precipitation taking place over the Indian
subcontinent. Some of the main findings of the study are
summarized below:
[15] 1. The overall patterns for the phase of maximum in
the frequency and amount of precipitation in the interior of
India were a few days after the full moon.
2. The west coast of India in general had higher
precipitation during the ascending phase of the lunar cycle
that was in conformity with previous case studies by Rajan
and Bindu [1995].
[17] 3. The variance explained by the lunar cycle was
significant over most of northwest and peninsular India in
the east.
[18] 4. Generally the areas of heavy summer monsoon
precipitation located over the west coast as well as in the
northeast showed weaker response to the lunar cycle.

[19] Scientists have suggested several causal mechanisms
for the lunar modulation on the precipitation. The earliest
explanation by Adderly and Bowen [1962], showed a lunar
modulation on the amount of meteoric dust reaching the
earth surface. Further, Hanson et al. [1987] suggested that
the mechanism, by which the lunar phase modulates the
precipitation, is in the form of long wave circulation in the
troposphere.
In case of India, the stronger lunar modulation
in the drier interiors is due to a weaker monsoon circulation,
leading to a more pronounced impact of the tropospheric
long waves during the different phases of the lunar cycle.
[20] The results of the present study are an extension to
already existing regional level studies, analyzing the role of
lunar cycle on precipitation in India. The spatial patterns
revealed by the analysis will enhance the forecasting of
summer monsoon precipitation across the subcontinent with
greater precision
The Influence of Lunar Phases on Rainfall
https://shodhganga.inflibnet.ac.in/bits ... er%209.pdf

Bradley et al (2) using the dates of heavy precipitation for each month recorded at the 1,544 United States weather stations during 1900-1949 have shown that there was a marked tendency for heavy rainfall on the third to fifth days after the configuration of both new moon and full moon. Simultaneously Adderley and Bowen (3) reported that the heaviest rainfalls in New Zealand occurred on certain days of the lunar month, notably about three days after the full moon and new moon. They suggested that the meteoric dust got modulated when the moon’s orbit was close to the plane of the ecliptic. The meteoric dust would then act as an ice forming nucleus. This theory generated considerable interest among, the scientific workers and paved the way for several investigations in this field.

Comment on “A Study of a Non-Deepening Tropical Disturbance”
https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10 ... 2.0.CO%3B2

[maj. tom]

But do let me review.

1. Ref: The Influence of Lunar Phases on Rainfall
https://shodhganga.inflibnet.ac.in/bits ... er%209.pdf
The graphs show that there is decreased rainfall during the full moon. And an increase about 4 days after. And then they say they was a marked tendency for rainfall 3 to 4 days after the full or before the new moon. Soooo... wouldn't this exactly correspond to the dew point falling due to the adiabatic decompression of the moon moving away from directly above or below us on those phases? The majority of the paper is work done in coastal areas in India. They did a rigorous statistical test on this data from India and found it to be true. After a full moon or before the new moon. Coastal areas in India. (keep this in mind).

Bradley et al suggested that data could be used to explain the trends in USA, but it did not.


2. Ref: Comment on “A Study of a Non-Deepening Tropical Disturbance”
https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10 ... 2.0.CO%3B2
So they wrote another paper in 1966 and based on some more satellite observances suggested another mechanism related to the lunar phases and called for more study. There was no conclusion to that addendum.


3. Ref: Impact of lunar cycle on the precipitation in India
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com ... 05GL024771

They studied India again and because it has such a complex and unique monsoon weather pattern caused by the Himalayas, they didn't draw any hard conclusions again. They again found the same pattern of rainfall increase along coastal areas 3 to 4 days after the full moon (yes, coastal region again). Proving again that stuff about the adiabatic compression dew point change. They even said that the interior of India experiences a drier period due to a weakened monsoon cycle caused by the lunar modulation. The purpose of that study was for better prediction models on monsoon precipitation during the summer in India. It was not a paper to explain the effect that the full moon has on rainfall on any global scale, but just on one unique, specific system.


And now I'll post a source:

University of Wyoming
E. Linacre and B. Geerts

1/'99

Rainfall

A century of daily rainfall data from Sydney shows no connection with the phase of the Moon, apart from very slightly fewer heavy falls at the time of the full moon (1). Similar results have been found elsewhere. Data from Jakarta on monsoonal rainfalls (i.e. over 38 mm/day in December - March during 1864-1945), and from Magalore on the west coast of India (1901-50), show a tendency for more rain at certain times of the lunar cycle, especially in years with relatively few sunspots (2). At Jakarta, most rain occurs shortly before full moon, and least just after new moon. The deviation is 25% from the usual in years of below the median number of sunspots. At Magalore, most rain occurs when the moon is in the first quarter, and least in the last quarter, but the amplitude of this cycle is smaller.

Temperature

Nighttime minimum temperatures on Earth are a little higher under a full moon, compared to a new moon. This has been demonstrated by means of an analysis of global surface temperature data. The difference is only about 0.01 K, and this difference is consistent with the extra energy the nocturnal Earth receives under a full moon. The difference clearly is insignificant, and in most situations it can't be measured. Weather stations measure the temperature with an accuracy of at most 0.1 K.

Explanation

The moon exerts a gravitational pull on the atmosphere, but the resulting vertical air motion is negligible, even during full or new moons. Along coasts with large tidal differences and broad beaches, the phase of the moon can have a small effect on the local wind circulation, either through thermal effects (i.e. the strength of the sea breeze) or mechanical effects (e.g. onshore flow forced by the upheaval of water). As such, the phase of the moon can indirectly affect temperature, cloudiness and precipitation in coastal areas. Lack of evidence suggests that this effect is small as well.

http://www-das.uwyo.edu/~geerts/cwx/not ... /moon.html

So the general published consensus by the scientific community, as reflected by the official publication from this accredited University states that there is no correlation, but there are local effects observed in ((*gasp*)) coastal areas due to minor wind changes due to that minute temperature change explained. They suggest that the sunspot cycle may have more to do with it than the lunar cycles.


My conclusions:

1. The laws of thermodynamics were not broken in any of these publications and during the full moon it has has no effect on rainfall. There is some increase on select coastal regions 3 - 4 days before the New Moon and 3 -4 days after the Full Moon.*** This effect is explained in the quoted box above as an indirect minor effect due to local wind circulation. This remains the modern conclusion by scientists from all the world.
***In select coastal areas in India, combined with a complex and unique monsoon weather system.

2. This is therefore the likeliest source of this anecdote. Our ancestors came from coastal regions in India and brought to Trinidad their cultural knowledge of weather and passed it on and on to generations here.

3. All the copy and paste above says exactly what is said by the rest of the scientific community on this matter, it was just not read properly or interpreted at all by the user that needs to be right because he is in his mid-twenties and knows everything better than everyone else from his immense life experience.

4. If you cherry pick studies and data, you can almost always find someone saying that they can back up your statement. Why did you not choose the 999 other articles that say the opposite? However, people that cherry pick papers usually are not scientists, not formally trained in science or published research and thus cannot interpret, or incorrectly interpret what the study is trying to say. And i really have to say it, but the user above is one of those. I have seen many other times where he would copy and paste cherry-picked papers from his Google search, that have no real conclusion besides saying further study is required, on dietary studies saying that carbs are good and necessary for you, while the overwhelming modern scientific consensus is that carbs are bad for the majority of the population, while dietary fats are good. Just because you have anecdotal evidence does not make it scientific and real. Any scientific study can prove anything it wants if the data points are biased and depending on what question was asked in the hypothesis. Even peer reviewed published research has these flaws and are noted by researchers.

4. Please contact your nearest University's Physics and Climate department for any further discussions on this because I am tired of trying to educate ignorant people who don't want to be educated, but who already know everything because dey mammy grandpappy tell dem so in the cane field 80 years ago over a cap of puncheon.

[meccalli]

http://www-das.uwyo.edu/~geerts/cwx/not ... /moon.html
References

O.Mahoney, G. 1965. Rainfall and moon phase. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 91, 196--208.
Berson, F.A. and E.L. Deacon 1965. Heavy rainfalls and the lunar cycle. Indian J. Meteor. and Geophys., 16, 55-60.

Just one single piece of scientific evidence, please just present 1 single piece of scientific evidence of it, and i swear i'll write to a physics journal and tell them that a Trinituner user found a way that the laws of thermodynamics were broken regarding adiabatic compression and temperature increase. They'll surely publish that and change the world forever.

You can spare all the rhetoric, you should start writing now.
I guess your source decided to cherry pick my cherry picked references? And for the purposes of showing that a century of Sydney's rainfall data is associated with unique precipitation events around the full moon and the same found in areas of India in addition to other areas being associated with other moon phases.

Guess what people were saying in this thread genius? It's a simple observation and you don't have to go full retard because you don't agree with someone, particularly when you have done no work and have no local data on the incredibly entwined atmospheric processes that have been known to be forced by the sun and moon specific to our island, far less for specific coastal areas.

You proposed there's no evidence that suggests lunar phases affects precipitation. This is demonstrably false according to the literature. Unless you can support your position with research, that nothing of the sort occurs in our local specific weather patterns and coastal atmospheric events, you're just spouting bs.

Please present support for your position and maybe people will take what you say seriously instead of hurling accusations. So far your source referenced my source. No wonder your name came up in the worst tuner list....

When people turn science into an instrument of blindness rather than a tool to reveal truth, you find this sort of behaviour.
In case you haven't noticed the trend, science has been slowly but surely bolstering the position of indigenous peoples on natural phenomenon for decades, albeit slowly. Why? Traditional knowledge is based on observation and repetition, which happen to be fundamental tenets of the scientific process.
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science- ... 180968216/

So here's what we have.
People have been noticing precipitation events around certain moon phases.
I referenced sources that show this in other parts of the world including a note from the journal of applied meteorology that calls for more investigation based on tropical data in the caribbean that is non dismissable on the phenomenon of lunar and tide influences on precipitation events.

Mr. Tom over says nay, because he apparently knows better than both the common man and scientists who cherry pick studies and my track record (apparently people of keeping tabs on me) of supporting carbs apparently discredits my references.
Go figure.

[maj. tom]

My source referenced your source to show that there was no correlation but that there may be an effect on coastal regions. Which my source stated as due to local wind circulation. It recognized what the study in India stated and explained the fact. The India study said that it was a combination of other factors related to the monsoon.

I am not getting in any online fight with un-academia. I haven't been keeping tabs on you, but I do notice when people post research that does not match reality. Several times I could have rebutted all your carb claims with modern, unbiased, untainted by the sugar industry studies but I decided not to. Because you are right as well depending on your Hypothesis. I recently discussed this with another user Slartibartfast in another thread. A lot of people just do not understand how scientific research is conducted or how medical research should be interpreted. Now this is getting tediously long for this thread and just a bit too annoying to continue here. My apologies on what may have been a personal attack on you. I was perhaps being too arrogant on a forum.

[eitech]

Soo rain failing tomorrow or not?

[sMASH]

south, intermittently cloudy with lil drizzle... is like it want to be dry season, but the sahara dust doing some cloud seeding, by force.

[rspann]

The world is flat and scientists say it's spherical.

[redmanjp]

There was some seriously heavy wind gusts in Central today.

news last night said we had 75kph gusts- that's tropical storm force

Met Office should have posted a Wind Advisory

[Musical Doc]

Plenty rains and winds in south yesterday and this morning. I shoulda know not to wash my car

[Les Bain]

Rainfall more like microburst activity in D'abadie. Started abruptly and heavily, quickly intensified then died down to gentle rain.
For a while the roof impact was deafening.