Re: PNM in Gov't

[adnj]

The unrecoverable economic loss is real and well within global estimates.

Trinidad has a GDP of US$24.1 Billion (2019). GDP contraction for Latin American countries is expected to be 7.2% in 2020 (US$1.74 Billion).

Incremental deferrals of credit interest and monetary policy spending are not included. Losses due to tourism are significant but not exclusive.

At issue is the shape of economic rebound in 2021 which may lead to a slower recapture of economic activity that would approximate a 2.4% loss of 2019 GDP (US$578 million).

Covid-19 losses are expected to total US$2.32 billion for 2020/21.

What is not discussed is the accelerated GDP growth that is likely to start in 3Q/4Q 2021.

You can find more info at the links.

https://tradingeconomics.com/trinidad-and-tobago/gdp

https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/featu ... nged-world

Please be careful of the websites u use to assess the domestoc economic environment. There are no official 2019 estimates for GDP by the CSO (the only institue that can publish statistics for TnT). Additionaly, GDP (adjusted for inflation) for 2018 from the CSO was around 158 million TT. This is significantly larger than what is quoted on trading economics. So again be careful on the data sources u use. Also (giving benefit of the doubt) i think u mean to say monetary policy to stimulate spending. Monetary policy targets inflation by changing interest rates and/or liquidity in the financial system. I haven't read the most recent global economic outlook, but like the world economic outlook (by imf) i am sure its estimates for economic recovery are optimistic. As we have seen so far the impact of tbis virus is more than originally anticipated. With rising job losses, business closures, food prices and less fiscal space (maybe covid fines will help the government make up oil revenue losses lol) it is my opinion that tnt will not recover (that is experience some level of positive economic growth) till 2023.

The GDP estimates that I typically refer to are CIA Factbook publication numbers.

Your GDP of TT$158 million cannot possibly be correct. Please review.

With respect to post-recessionary GDP recovery, there is a growth acceleration by definition.

In my experience, IMF inflation and growth numbers are never optimistic but rather the most likely outcome given the data available at the time. It is also quite normal for GDP to be adjusted after the fact with the most closely monitored world economies. It's is not atypical to see modifications six months later.

-----------

Global growth is projected at –4.9 percent in 2020, 1.9 percentage points below the April 2020 World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecast. The COVID-19 pandemic has had a more negative impact on activity in the first half of 2020 than anticipated, and the recovery is projected to be more gradual than previously forecast. In 2021 global growth is projected at 5.4 percent. Overall, this would leave 2021 GDP some 6½ percentage points lower than in the pre-COVID-19 projections of January 2020. The adverse impact on low-income households is particularly acute, imperiling the significant progress made in reducing extreme poverty in the world since the 1990s.

https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO ... teJune2020

https://cso.gov.tt/cso_statistics/gross ... nt-prices/. You can find the GDP statistic for 2018 there. The CIA factbook qoutes GDP for 2017 (their latest estimate) for tnt as 22.8 billion US. Whether u like it or not the official statistical body of tnt is the CSO. Their statistics are more accurate than anyone elses values for us as (for example) does CIA/Worldbank/IMF send a group of statisticians with domestic governance clearance to estimate GDP, unemployment, inflation, etc for the 195 countries in the world (they must have ALOT of statisticians then). So far for the G7, three members (US, Japan, UK) have recorded for june 2020 a 31 percent, 26 per cent and 20 per cent contraction in gdp. Given that it is anticipated that economic activity for the remainder of 2020 will continue to worsen as for example city centers lose money (work from home has meant less retail shopping) and countries have gone back into lockdown, it is my belief that the weo estimate for global growth was optimistic. While i get your point on the weo using all information available atthat point in time, the report was released in april and at that time many countries already went into lockdown. Any lockdown will have a significant impact on economic activity. The imf should know that. But they also have a responsibility to not incite panic. So, like every other institution, lied/downplayed the facts.

We are going to decouple here.

The GDP contraction estimates for G(n) countries are annualized at approximately 30%. That is 7.5% per quarter.

I have no interest in debating whether the correct number is CIA or IMF or CSO. The fact of the matter is that the GDP estimates are reasonably accurate.

Nor do I wish to debate whether there was or is some conspiracy to mislead the public with the data that is available publicly.

Depending on the speed with which Covid-19 GDP contraction ceases you will most likely see:

... Acceleration of GDP growth to prior business fundamental levels sans any new or unforeseen economic pressures.
... An unrecoverable loss of total GDP that will weigh down the economy.
... Historical evidence indicates that lost GDP effects could be felt by the population for ten years or so.

[bluefete]

World Bank forecast (-4.5%) GDP for T&T in 2020.

[zoom rader]

World Bank forecast (-4.5%) GDP for T&T in 2020.

Tighten you belt
Bann ur belly
Next two years is hard
Pay ur taxes
Tourism loss 15billion.

And..........blame kams cause UNC need to change from PNM clowns on tuner

What a jack arse country

[Redman]

World Bank forecast (-4.5%) GDP for T&T in 2020.

Tighten you belt
Bann ur belly
Next two years is hard
Pay ur taxes
Tourism loss 15billion.

And..........blame kams cause UNC need to change from PNM clowns on tuner

What a jack arse country

Well said...your post confirms your conclusion.

[zoom rader]

World Bank forecast (-4.5%) GDP for T&T in 2020.

Tighten you belt
Bann ur belly
Next two years is hard
Pay ur taxes
Tourism loss 15billion.

And..........blame kams cause UNC need to change from PNM clowns on tuner

What a jack arse country

Well said...your post confirms your conclusion.

Yep blame Kams for PNM 15 Billion hole .

[RedVEVO]

World Bank forecast (-4.5%) GDP for T&T in 2020.

Tighten you belt
Bann ur belly
Next two years is hard
Pay ur taxes
Tourism loss 15billion.

And..........blame kams cause UNC need to change from PNM clowns on tuner

What a jack arse country

Well said...your post confirms your conclusion.

Yep blame Kams for PNM 15 Billion hole .

His supporters do not even understand this statement

It's like saying I sold the farm

[adnj]

Tighten you belt
Bann ur belly
Next two years is hard
Pay ur taxes
Tourism loss 15billion.

And..........blame kams cause UNC need to change from PNM clowns on tuner

What a jack arse country

Well said...your post confirms your conclusion.

Yep blame Kams for PNM 15 Billion hole .

Independence day as a banana republic sucks.

We should have still been under British Rule.

This PNM rule has not worked out

It’s not healthy to be that sour about every single thing.

viewtopic.php?p=10083812#p10083812

[Dizzy28]

Cabinet has approved the PNM Manifesto as Government policy last week.
For those unfamiliar with it, it would be wise to take a gander to understand what the various Ministries will be focused on.

My only real issue so far is that the section on Diversification is 2 pages however the section on Social Services is 3.
Also a lot of the areas such housing and MSME development are heavily dependent on welfare and grants but I see no real tangible description of how they intend to fund it.

[Redman]

Diversification is a long lead time issue- especially now- they should bring Mary King in,establish a SMALL comittee, issue a plan -and do what she says.

In in the mean time-

what we have is oil- that thanks to Vene position, is marketable internationally.

Get local producers up and running - and export as much oil as we can as fast as we can.

Oil in the ground is useless.

[Dizzy28]

The excerpt regarding oil production

Diversification is a long lead time issue- especially now- they should bring Mary King in,establish a SMALL comittee, issue a plan -and do what she says.

In in the mean time-

what we have is oil- that thanks to Vene position, is marketable internationally.

Get local producers up and running - and export as much oil as we can as fast as we can.

Oil in the ground is useless.

[Redman]

That document is spectacularly wrong....

10,000 ft wells are deeper wells onshore TnT
A 5000 ft well which would be closer to normal onshore wells cost about 280 USD per foot to drill.

That number is friggin ludicrous.

[Gladiator]

Why she.... She is a racist fraud... Dais Yuh Famalee or wha?

Diversification is a long lead time issue- especially now- they should bring Mary King in,establish a SMALL comittee, issue a plan -and do what she says.

In in the mean time-

what we have is oil- that thanks to Vene position, is marketable internationally.

Get local producers up and running - and export as much oil as we can as fast as we can.

Oil in the ground is useless.

[Dohplaydat]

Why she.... She is a racist fraud... Dais Yuh Famalee or wha?

Diversification is a long lead time issue- especially now- they should bring Mary King in,establish a SMALL comittee, issue a plan -and do what she says.

In in the mean time-

what we have is oil- that thanks to Vene position, is marketable internationally.

Get local producers up and running - and export as much oil as we can as fast as we can.

Oil in the ground is useless.

She isn't a fraud, but at her age, I wouldn't rely on her fully for this. Also, it's hard to say she's racist as she's married to a blackman (St Clair King). I just think she's kind of a beyotch and her son being a coke addict speaks to that.

[Redman]

Why she.... She is a racist fraud... Dais Yuh Famalee or wha?

Diversification is a long lead time issue- especially now- they should bring Mary King in,establish a SMALL comittee, issue a plan -and do what she says.

In in the mean time-

what we have is oil- that thanks to Vene position, is marketable internationally.

Get local producers up and running - and export as much oil as we can as fast as we can.

Oil in the ground is useless.

Just that she has been writing the most comprehensive articles on this topic for decades.
But anybody with the knowledge is fine.

[De Dragon]

PNM sank the economy long before Covid. Granted they came in on the front end of energy price collapse, but their backwards, inept policies and use of words like "irritating" to describe diversification and their seeming manic aversion to renewables can only mean 5 more years of the same, all while waiting for a miraculous return of oil/gas prices. Gas production meanwhile was its lowest in 5 years at 3.110 billion SCFD, mainly due to shutdowns of several Point Lisas plants who couldn't survive the double whammy of low commodity prices and JUHN Scarfy's art of the deal gas negotiations with upstreamers.

[Gladiator]

Why she.... She is a racist fraud... Dais Yuh Famalee or wha?

Diversification is a long lead time issue- especially now- they should bring Mary King in,establish a SMALL comittee, issue a plan -and do what she says.

In in the mean time-

what we have is oil- that thanks to Vene position, is marketable internationally.

Get local producers up and running - and export as much oil as we can as fast as we can.

Oil in the ground is useless.

She isn't a fraud, but at her age, I wouldn't rely on her fully for this. Also, it's hard to say she's racist as she's married to a blackman (St Clair King). I just think she's kind of a beyotch and her son being a coke addict speaks to that.

Sooooooooooooo racist only means that you doh like black people???

[Musical Doc]

Every govt talks about diversification but none of them take the steps forward with it but the PNM govt seems to be actively running it into the ground. Speaking to my friend from Sugarcane Feeds Centre, she's not fearful for her job because during the last 5 years the agriculture minister has been closing down different divisions quietly. The last one they closed was the Centeno Livestock station and she said word is next in line to be closed down is SFC.

[Dizzy28]

Every govt talks about diversification but none of them take the steps forward with it but the PNM govt seems to be actively running it into the ground. Speaking to my friend from Sugarcane Feeds Centre, she's not fearful for her job because during the last 5 years the agriculture minister has been closing down different divisions quietly. The last one they closed was the Centeno Livestock station and she said word is next in line to be closed down is SFC.

She is fearful or not fearful?

[zoom rader]

Every govt talks about diversification but none of them take the steps forward with it but the PNM govt seems to be actively running it into the ground. Speaking to my friend from Sugarcane Feeds Centre, she's not fearful for her job because during the last 5 years the agriculture minister has been closing down different divisions quietly. The last one they closed was the Centeno Livestock station and she said word is next in line to be closed down is SFC.

That's because a group of mega farm conglomerates want total control of TT agriculture.

First you run it into the ground and then say agriculture needs a boost and then award it to friends and family who know nothing about mining cow and sheep.

We saw how they did it with ganja and only certain people are allowed to reap big profits.

Stupid country will forever remain dumb under PNM

[Musical Doc]

Every govt talks about diversification but none of them take the steps forward with it but the PNM govt seems to be actively running it into the ground. Speaking to my friend from Sugarcane Feeds Centre, she's not fearful for her job because during the last 5 years the agriculture minister has been closing down different divisions quietly. The last one they closed was the Centeno Livestock station and she said word is next in line to be closed down is SFC.

She is fearful or not fearful?

Fearful... my fault for the typo

[Dizzy28]

Every govt talks about diversification but none of them take the steps forward with it but the PNM govt seems to be actively running it into the ground. Speaking to my friend from Sugarcane Feeds Centre, she's not fearful for her job because during the last 5 years the agriculture minister has been closing down different divisions quietly. The last one they closed was the Centeno Livestock station and she said word is next in line to be closed down is SFC.

She is fearful or not fearful?

Fearful... my fault for the typo

No scenes.
One of the best con jobs around has been that Clarence made ppl believe he genuinely cares about the Agriculture industry. Man really only cares about one divison in that Ministry - Commissioner of State Lands.

[Musical Doc]

Every govt talks about diversification but none of them take the steps forward with it but the PNM govt seems to be actively running it into the ground. Speaking to my friend from Sugarcane Feeds Centre, she's not fearful for her job because during the last 5 years the agriculture minister has been closing down different divisions quietly. The last one they closed was the Centeno Livestock station and she said word is next in line to be closed down is SFC.

She is fearful or not fearful?

Fearful... my fault for the typo

No scenes.
One of the best con jobs around has been that Clarence made ppl believe he genuinely cares about the Agriculture industry. Man really only cares about one divison in that Ministry - Commissioner of State Lands.

That is exactly what she said lol

[zoom rader]

^^^ The entire PNM is a con Job

Just look at the mess they made with Covid and people went in to vote saying Rowlee did a good job with Covid

Stupid People , Stupid Country

[De Dragon]

2015 - You put a man who failed to get elected , still bring his failed arse in the Senate to fail more, appoint him MoAg, to fail for 5 years.
Fast forward to 2020, the exact same set of circumstances and you expect what exactly?
Left Foot Right Foot Dotish!
Elections have consequences.

[sMASH]

Elon did that with tweets about his company, stock price drop, and he get fined fir trying to manipulate the prices.

Every govt talks about diversification but none of them take the steps forward with it but the PNM govt seems to be actively running it into the ground. Speaking to my friend from Sugarcane Feeds Centre, she's not fearful for her job because during the last 5 years the agriculture minister has been closing down different divisions quietly. The last one they closed was the Centeno Livestock station and she said word is next in line to be closed down is SFC.

That's because a group of mega farm conglomerates want total control of TT agriculture.

First you run it into the ground and then say agriculture needs a boost and then award it to friends and family who know nothing about mining cow and sheep.

We saw how they did it with ganja and only certain people are allowed to reap big profits.

Stupid country will forever remain dumb under PNM

[zoom rader]

Elon did that with tweets about his company, stock price drop, and he get fined fir trying to manipulate the prices.

Every govt talks about diversification but none of them take the steps forward with it but the PNM govt seems to be actively running it into the ground. Speaking to my friend from Sugarcane Feeds Centre, she's not fearful for her job because during the last 5 years the agriculture minister has been closing down different divisions quietly. The last one they closed was the Centeno Livestock station and she said word is next in line to be closed down is SFC.

That's because a group of mega farm conglomerates want total control of TT agriculture.

First you run it into the ground and then say agriculture needs a boost and then award it to friends and family who know nothing about mining cow and sheep.

We saw how they did it with ganja and only certain people are allowed to reap big profits.

Stupid country will forever remain dumb under PNM

Yeah but in this case you can't charge PNM

They doing as they please.

[VexXx Dogg]

Colm tweeted with immediate effect, no tax on computers, notebooks, tablets

[K74T]

[shake d livin wake d dead]

Have no fear....they gonna make back them taxes elsewhere. Budget coming soon

[zoom rader]

Have no fear....they gonna make back them taxes elsewhere. Budget coming soon

Yep, that's why income taxes is going up .

Your tax free allowance will drop back to the first 60k from 72k

So your 12k will be taxed for computers.

Take bull for all those that wanted PNM