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Re: Coronavirus - COVID-19 - 8511 cases, 146 deaths, 566 active, 7799 recovered in T&T

Postby Redress10 » April 14th, 2021, 6:58 pm

Pugboy

The virus determines the timeline and not the person. If covid licking up ppl within 18 days of contracting it then within those 18 days you are going to recover or die. He passed on the 26th of March. Even if he was infected for all of March that is 26 days with covid over 8 days more than the average person. Remember people start recovering by day 10-12. By day 12 is usually when it's time to go on a ventilator. By day 15 you begin to suffer organ failure and by day 18 you pass away.

So if he was infected carnival Tuesday he would have passed away about 18 days after that infection. 10-12 days after being infected he would have started recovering. Covid not here to lime with ya. He on his own schedule as well. Remember the virus has a lifecycle of its own as well. It's not just gonna lay dormant in ya body for days and then affect you for a month or 2.

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Re: Coronavirus - COVID-19 - 8511 cases, 146 deaths, 566 active, 7799 recovered in T&T

Postby pugboy » April 14th, 2021, 7:02 pm

you didnt read what i wrote

Redress10 wrote:Pugboy

The virus determines the timeline and not the person. If covid licking up ppl within 18 days of contracting it then within those 18 days you are going to recover or die. He passed on the 26th of March. Even if he was infected for all of March that is 26 days with covid over 8 days more than the average person. Remember people start recovering by day 10-12. By day 12 is usually when it's time to go on a ventilator. By day 15 you begin to suffer organ failure and by day 18 you pass away.

So if he was infected carnival Tuesday he would have passed away about 18 days after that infection. 10-12 days after being infected he would have started recovering. Covid not here to lime with ya. He on his own schedule as well. Remember the virus has a lifecycle of its own as well. It's not just gonna lay dormant in ya body for days and then affect you for a month or 2.

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Re: Coronavirus - COVID-19 - 8511 cases, 146 deaths, 566 active, 7799 recovered in T&T

Postby Dohplaydat » April 14th, 2021, 7:08 pm

pugboy wrote:you didnt read what i wrote

Redress10 wrote:Pugboy

The virus determines the timeline and not the person. If covid licking up ppl within 18 days of contracting it then within those 18 days you are going to recover or die. He passed on the 26th of March. Even if he was infected for all of March that is 26 days with covid over 8 days more than the average person. Remember people start recovering by day 10-12. By day 12 is usually when it's time to go on a ventilator. By day 15 you begin to suffer organ failure and by day 18 you pass away.

So if he was infected carnival Tuesday he would have passed away about 18 days after that infection. 10-12 days after being infected he would have started recovering. Covid not here to lime with ya. He on his own schedule as well. Remember the virus has a lifecycle of its own as well. It's not just gonna lay dormant in ya body for days and then affect you for a month or 2.


It's statistically possible for you both to be right.

But what we've learned since is that covid was around in the US especially NY, far earlier than we thought, hence why I said it was highly likely around during carnival, we just didn't detect the spread until later on and we locked down just 3 weeks after Carnival.

Another factor we need to remember is that covid-19 spread occurs mostly indoors. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/medrxiv ... 1.full.pdf

Available evidence of outdoor transmission
of COVID-19 has been reviewed, and the
context and caveats provided by the extant
science and literature considered. This leads to
the conclusion that the outdoor environment
presents a low risk of transmission of COVID-19
due to the natural social distancing that
happens through the normal conventions of
personal space in everyday life.


https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/wh ... nsmission/
What A Summer Of COVID-19 Taught Scientists About Indoor vs. Outdoor Transmission
Why does that matter? Some of it has to do with the physics of air movement, said Linsey Marr, a professor of civil and environmental engineering at Virginia Tech. If you’re standing right next to someone else, there won’t be enough time for sun and heat to break the virus down before you breathe it in. But there is enough time for the wind to blow it away. “Imagine someone who is infected as a smoker,” Marr explained. “If someone is smoking, and you want to minimize your exposure, would you rather be indoors or outdoors with them?”

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Re: Coronavirus - COVID-19 - 8511 cases, 146 deaths, 566 active, 7799 recovered in T&T

Postby Strugglerzinc » April 14th, 2021, 7:13 pm

Dohplaydat wrote:
Strugglerzinc wrote:Is it still the case where primary contacts are not being actively tested?


Correct, at least in my experience. My brother tested positive privately, he spends a lot of time with my parents and gf, none were asked to come in for testing.

In fact, the contact tracing efforts were ZERO, not sure if it's because he tested privately.

My parents are awaiting results from Mt. Hope since last Tuesday.

I might carry them to get it done privately tomorrow since my pops saying he has been feeling low energy and food lacking taste (unusual coming from him since he's not a fussy eater).


So we still up to the same ole tricks, low testing=low numbers.

Actual cases should be 3x-4x the reported numbers if not way more.

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Re: Coronavirus - COVID-19 - 8511 cases, 146 deaths, 566 active, 7799 recovered in T&T

Postby zoom rader » April 14th, 2021, 7:16 pm

Strugglerzinc wrote:
Dohplaydat wrote:
Strugglerzinc wrote:Is it still the case where primary contacts are not being actively tested?


Correct, at least in my experience. My brother tested positive privately, he spends a lot of time with my parents and gf, none were asked to come in for testing.

In fact, the contact tracing efforts were ZERO, not sure if it's because he tested privately.

My parents are awaiting results from Mt. Hope since last Tuesday.

I might carry them to get it done privately tomorrow since my pops saying he has been feeling low energy and food lacking taste (unusual coming from him since he's not a fussy eater).


So we still up to the same ole tricks, low testing=low numbers.

Actual cases should be 3x-4x the reported numbers if not way more.
This is how the red government conned a nation

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Re: Coronavirus - COVID-19 - 8511 cases, 146 deaths, 566 active, 7799 recovered in T&T

Postby Dohplaydat » April 14th, 2021, 7:17 pm

Strugglerzinc wrote:
Dohplaydat wrote:
Strugglerzinc wrote:Is it still the case where primary contacts are not being actively tested?


Correct, at least in my experience. My brother tested positive privately, he spends a lot of time with my parents and gf, none were asked to come in for testing.

In fact, the contact tracing efforts were ZERO, not sure if it's because he tested privately.

My parents are awaiting results from Mt. Hope since last Tuesday.

I might carry them to get it done privately tomorrow since my pops saying he has been feeling low energy and food lacking taste (unusual coming from him since he's not a fussy eater).


So we still up to the same ole tricks, low testing=low numbers.

Actual cases should be 3x-4x the reported numbers if not way more.


40% tricks, 60% incompetance

The entire state testing procedure is in shambles. Nothing digitized, no one answers the phone numbers provided (my mom called over 100 times), they say a nurse will call you everyday, not a single call. The woman taking the information look absolutely confused half the time.

They also refused my brother for testing because he said he had no fever, just fatigue and headache.

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Re: Coronavirus - COVID-19 - 8511 cases, 146 deaths, 566 active, 7799 recovered in T&T

Postby adnj » April 14th, 2021, 7:17 pm

Dohplaydat wrote:
Habit7 wrote:
Dohplaydat wrote:
Redress10 wrote:
Dohplaydat wrote:
Habit7 wrote:The same ppl criticising the no music on the glass bottom boat will be vex when they see the same boat blasting music on No Mans Land and ppl feting and carrying on.


Yea I agree, but honestly the risk of outdoor spread is low. Probably why we got lucky for Carnival.


We did not get lucky for carnival. The virus simply wasn't amongst our population as yet. Had carnival been a week or two later then yeh.

Can't believe you all still don't know how transmissions work. Jeez


I agree partially but you really feel all them plane loads of New Yorkers came down and no one had Covid? Keep dreaming. Testing was poor back then in the US and even poorer in Trinidad.

The summer spike wasn't just venes bringing it in, it was always amongst us just not spreading exponentially.

There's now lots of evidence to show outdoor spread of Covid is miniscule.

Research it yourself.

Combine that and us not really having a vitamin D deficiency and Covid being less virulent in tropical climates made us LUCKY.

New Orleans Mardi Gras- unlucky
scores of Brazilian city carnivals (in the middle of Southern summer) - unlucky
Trinidad carnival -lucky

You keep telling yourself that.


Keep telling yourself MoH testing is consistent with those in Brazil and the USA.
By comparison, outdoor transmission is minuscule - unless there is prolonged contact and/or large crowds.

Low-risk social activities

Depending on your location and the weather, many other outdoor activities can be good choices, too:

Picnics. Pack food from home. Or pick up takeout from your favorite restaurant or food truck. In some places, you might be able to get your food delivered to you. Take it to enjoy at your favorite public park, or eat out on your patio or deck.

Outdoor farmers markets. Wear a mask and maintain a social distance of at least 6 feet (2 meters) from others.

Drive-in movies. The COVID-19 pandemic has launched a drive-in movie theater comeback in the U.S. It's something many people can enjoy together with plenty of physical distance.

Low- to moderate-risk outdoor activities

Depending on how they're done, many popular outdoor activities also can be safe. While some of these may not be available in all seasons and locations, take advantage of them when the weather permits. Some ideas include:

Restaurant patio dining. When the weather is appropriate to be outside, patio dining can be a good outdoor option. Outdoor patio dining at uncrowded restaurants where patio tables are spaced appropriately is safer than indoor dining. Wear a mask when not eating or drinking. In other areas of the restaurant, keep a distance of at least 6 feet (2 meters) from others. Avoid self-service food and drink options. And remember to wash your hands when you enter and leave.

Camping. If you only have close contact with people you live with, camping is low risk. If you camp with people who don't live in your household, camp in separate tents spaced at least 6 feet (2 meters) apart and avoid sharing camping supplies, including food and drinks. Pack hand soap, hand sanitizer and supplies to clean and disinfect commonly touched surfaces.

Swimming pools and beaches. Close contact of less than than 6 feet (2 meters) from others — not water itself — can make these activities risky. If you go to the beach and come into close contact with others, your risk is higher. Water itself doesn't spread the COVID-19 virus to people.

Gathering with small groups of friends. When meeting outdoors in small groups, allow for social distancing between people from different households and skip the hugs and handshakes. Plan activities that don't require close contact, such as sidewalk chalk for kids and games like Frisbee. And remember to wear masks and bring hand sanitizer.

Remember that just getting together for a chat at a safe distance can offer a valuable opportunity to be with people you care about — and boost your mood at the same time.

Boating with friends. Canoeing, kayaking or rowing with people who don't live in your household is riskier than doing these activities with only those from your own household.

Barbecues, campfires and outdoor potlucks. Grill out on the patio. Or if the weather is cool, bundle up in warm clothes and sit around a fire pit. Keep your gathering small, maintaining social distance from others. Plan activities that don't require close contact. You may even choose to have everyone bring his or her own food and drinks to enjoy the togetherness with less chance of virus spread. Wear a mask when not eating or drinking. And wash your hands when you arrive and leave the gathering.

Sports and sporting events. Contact sports, such as wrestling and basketball, carry more COVID-19 risk than do other sports. Team sports such as tennis, baseball, softball and soccer pose less risk because players can maintain physical distance. It's important for spectators, players and coaches to keep social distance. Wear a mask, use hand sanitizer and ensure you have enough social distance — at least 6 feet (2 meters) — between you and other spectators, whether you're standing, sitting in chairs or sharing bleachers.

High-risk outdoor activities

Bringing many people together in close contact for a longer period of time poses the highest risk of COVID-19 spread.

Examples include:

Large gatherings. Being in large gatherings or crowds of people where it's difficult to stay spaced at least 6 feet (2 meters) apart poses the highest risk. The larger the group and the longer people are together in these situations, the higher the risk. Weddings, festivals and parades are examples.

Youth camp activities. Camps are generally high risk because campers come from different locations and spend a lot of time together indoors, in close contact.

Camps can pose less risk if campers are from the same area, don't share objects, wear masks and spend time outdoors with at least 6 feet (2 meters) between them.

Playgrounds. The many frequently touched surfaces of playground equipment make it easier to spread the virus that causes COVID-19. However, in many areas, parks and playgrounds are open. Children who use playground equipment should maintain distance from others, avoid touching their faces and wash their hands afterward to help prevent the spread of the COVID-19 virus.

https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-con ... t-20489385

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Re: Coronavirus - COVID-19 - 8511 cases, 146 deaths, 566 active, 7799 recovered in T&T

Postby Redress10 » April 14th, 2021, 7:20 pm

Can't compare NY cases to TT. I'm sure Ny has direct flights to Wuhan so NY infection would have been instantaneous. Same goes for London, Paris and any other major city flying direct to Wuhan or even China. That is why they are impacted differently.

Do you think that a small island with little air travel would he affected the same way of a large metropolitan city? JFK alone processes over 800 flights per day. Heathrow has over 1300 flights daily. All of this plays a part in how quickly a disease spread.

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Re: Coronavirus - COVID-19 - 8511 cases, 146 deaths, 566 active, 7799 recovered in T&T

Postby Dohplaydat » April 14th, 2021, 7:27 pm

Redress10 wrote:Can't compare NY cases to TT. I'm sure Ny has direct flights to Wuhan so NY infection would have been instantaneous. Same goes for London, Paris and any other major city flying direct to Wuhan or even China. That is why they are impacted differently.

Do you think that a small island with little air travel would he affected the same way of a large metropolitan city? JFK alone processes over 800 flights per day. Heathrow has over 1300 flights daily. All of this plays a part in how quickly a disease spread.


And wouldn't that mean that it is very possible a handful of covid-19 carriers were here for carnival?

Not to mention the scores of trinis who travel for carnival to those places and would have returned after carnival.

I'm simply saying we avoided 'seeing' an outbreak by (1) having very strict and limited testing and (2) locking down hard in late March, stopping exponential growth from happening.

It wasn't solely luck of the timing of carnival, other factors were at play.

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronaviru ... study-says
Last edited by Dohplaydat on April 14th, 2021, 7:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Coronavirus - COVID-19 - 8511 cases, 146 deaths, 566 active, 7799 recovered in T&T

Postby pugboy » April 14th, 2021, 7:34 pm

btw a large part of the testing reluctance is based on impsbert not wanting to spend $$$$

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Re: Coronavirus - COVID-19 - 8511 cases, 146 deaths, 566 active, 7799 recovered in T&T

Postby widdyphuck » April 14th, 2021, 7:56 pm

Trinidad is in bad shape with 85 cases recorded today and 2 more deaths. Things only gonna get worse.

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Re: Coronavirus - COVID-19 - 8511 cases, 146 deaths, 566 active, 7799 recovered in T&T

Postby redmanjp » April 14th, 2021, 7:59 pm

Dohplaydat wrote:And wouldn't that mean that it is very possible a handful of covid-19 carriers were here for carnival?

Not to mention the scores of trinis who travel for carnival to those places and would have returned after carnival.

I'm simply saying we avoided 'seeing' an outbreak by (1) having very strict and limited testing and (2) locking down hard in late March, stopping exponential growth from happening.

It wasn't solely luck of the timing of carnival, other factors were at play.

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronaviru ... study-says


based on the no of deaths - 8, there could have been about ~400 cases at that time based on a 2% rate but we were not doing community tests at the time- but the lockdown stopped it. most of that could have come from the thousands who rushed to come back home b4 the borders closed. when community tests started weeks later we were getting 0 cases for another few weeks till July.

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Re: Coronavirus - COVID-19 - 8511 cases, 146 deaths, 566 active, 7799 recovered in T&T

Postby Dohplaydat » April 14th, 2021, 8:11 pm

redmanjp wrote:
Dohplaydat wrote:And wouldn't that mean that it is very possible a handful of covid-19 carriers were here for carnival?

Not to mention the scores of trinis who travel for carnival to those places and would have returned after carnival.

I'm simply saying we avoided 'seeing' an outbreak by (1) having very strict and limited testing and (2) locking down hard in late March, stopping exponential growth from happening.

It wasn't solely luck of the timing of carnival, other factors were at play.

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronaviru ... study-says


based on the no of deaths - 8, there could have been about ~400 cases at that time based on a 2% rate but we were not doing community tests at the time- but the lockdown stopped it. most of that could have come from the thousands who rushed to come back home b4 the borders closed. when community tests started weeks later we were getting 0 cases for another few weeks till July.


Yea I agree, although pretty sure 400 is an underestimate. Probably over 1000 cases I'm sure.

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Re: Coronavirus - COVID-19 - 8511 cases, 146 deaths, 566 active, 7799 recovered in T&T

Postby Redress10 » April 14th, 2021, 8:12 pm

Dohplaydat wrote:
Redress10 wrote:Can't compare NY cases to TT. I'm sure Ny has direct flights to Wuhan so NY infection would have been instantaneous. Same goes for London, Paris and any other major city flying direct to Wuhan or even China. That is why they are impacted differently.

Do you think that a small island with little air travel would he affected the same way of a large metropolitan city? JFK alone processes over 800 flights per day. Heathrow has over 1300 flights daily. All of this plays a part in how quickly a disease spread.


And wouldn't that mean that it is very possible a handful of covid-19 carriers were here for carnival?

Not to mention the scores of trinis who travel for carnival to those places and would have returned after carnival.

I'm simply saying we avoided 'seeing' an outbreak by (1) having very strict and limited testing and (2) locking down hard in late March, stopping exponential growth from happening.

It wasn't solely luck of the timing of carnival, other factors were at play.

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronaviru ... study-says


Chances are no. The more isolated and the smaller your population is the less likely that you would contract an infectious disease like this. Trinidad is not a global commercial hub. People returning for carnival would have been trinis or ppl with links to trinis. The virus simply could not have reached to that population as yet.

Would you expect to get a virus that is prevalent amongst jewish ppl for instance? Do caribbean ppl and jewish ppl mix in NY? It was the same thing with covid at that time. It was concentrated in other communities and the reality is travel to trinidad simply would not bring a disease that wasn't prevalent in the caribbean community at that time.

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Re: Coronavirus - COVID-19 - 8511 cases, 146 deaths, 566 active, 7799 recovered in T&T

Postby Dohplaydat » April 14th, 2021, 8:16 pm

Redress10 wrote:
Dohplaydat wrote:
Redress10 wrote:Can't compare NY cases to TT. I'm sure Ny has direct flights to Wuhan so NY infection would have been instantaneous. Same goes for London, Paris and any other major city flying direct to Wuhan or even China. That is why they are impacted differently.

Do you think that a small island with little air travel would he affected the same way of a large metropolitan city? JFK alone processes over 800 flights per day. Heathrow has over 1300 flights daily. All of this plays a part in how quickly a disease spread.


And wouldn't that mean that it is very possible a handful of covid-19 carriers were here for carnival?

Not to mention the scores of trinis who travel for carnival to those places and would have returned after carnival.

I'm simply saying we avoided 'seeing' an outbreak by (1) having very strict and limited testing and (2) locking down hard in late March, stopping exponential growth from happening.

It wasn't solely luck of the timing of carnival, other factors were at play.

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronaviru ... study-says


Chances are no. The more isolated and the smaller your population is the less likely that you would contract an infectious disease like this. Trinidad is not a global commercial hub. People returning for carnival would have been trinis or ppl with links to trinis. The virus simply could not have reached to that population as yet.

Would you expect to get a virus that is prevalent amongst jewish ppl for instance? Do caribbean ppl and jewish ppl mix in NY? It was the same thing with covid at that time. It was concentrated in other communities and the reality is travel to trinidad simply would not bring a disease that wasn't prevalent in the caribbean community at that time.


You making some wild assumptions about trinis NY bro. Chances are both your and my scenario are possible and we are both speculating with little evidence to back us up. Though my version seems more plausible.

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Re: Coronavirus - COVID-19 - 8511 cases, 146 deaths, 566 active, 7799 recovered in T&T

Postby zoom rader » April 14th, 2021, 8:18 pm

pugboy wrote:btw a large part of the testing reluctance is based on impsbert not wanting to spend $$$$
Then we idiots telling us don't bring politicians into it .

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Re: Coronavirus - COVID-19 - 8511 cases, 146 deaths, 566 active, 7799 recovered in T&T

Postby paid_influencer » April 14th, 2021, 8:24 pm

172657255_4277589752321240_697883816935769995_n.jpg

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Re: Coronavirus - COVID-19 - 8511 cases, 146 deaths, 566 active, 7799 recovered in T&T

Postby Redress10 » April 14th, 2021, 8:49 pm

Dohplaydat

New Zealand didn't record its first covid case until the 28th of February. New Zealand is a global commercial hub with people from all over the world flying there and yet still they only recorded their first case on the 28th and you want us to believe that covid was here in the hundreds in the weeks leading up to carnival but we simply didn't test for it? That is just madness now.

Italy's first covid death was confirmed on the 23rd of February. Look at how devastating the disease has been on Italy. When you all were feteing and frolicking ppl in Italy were not even dying as yet. Italy's first case of covid was the 21st. Our carnival was the 25th.

This only proves one thing. You seriously overestimate the importance and relevance of carnival.

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Re: Coronavirus - COVID-19 - 8511 cases, 146 deaths, 566 active, 7799 recovered in T&T

Postby redmanjp » April 14th, 2021, 8:55 pm

if their 1st case was 2 days before their 1st death it means that it was silently spreading weeks before.

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Re: Coronavirus - COVID-19 - 8511 cases, 146 deaths, 566 active, 7799 recovered in T&T

Postby adnj » April 14th, 2021, 9:03 pm

wtf wrote:Trinidad is in bad shape with 85 cases recorded today and 2 more deaths. Things only gonna get worse.
Current modeling indicates 1:10 infections is detected by testing. Expect peak infection rates in three weeks. Expect significant drop in infections after August 1st.

Image

This model shows twice the number of peak infections per day (1100) as the model from April 4 (570).
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Re: Coronavirus - COVID-19 - 8511 cases, 146 deaths, 566 active, 7799 recovered in T&T

Postby redmanjp » April 14th, 2021, 9:05 pm

^that doh factor in this lockdown does it?

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Re: Coronavirus - COVID-19 - 8511 cases, 146 deaths, 566 active, 7799 recovered in T&T

Postby Dohplaydat » April 14th, 2021, 9:05 pm

Redress10 wrote:Dohplaydat

New Zealand didn't record its first covid case until the 28th of February. New Zealand is a global commercial hub with people from all over the world flying there and yet still they only recorded their first case on the 28th and you want us to believe that covid was here in the hundreds in the weeks leading up to carnival but we simply didn't test for it? That is just madness now.

Italy's first covid death was confirmed on the 23rd of February. Look at how devastating the disease has been on Italy. When you all were feteing and frolicking ppl in Italy were not even dying as yet. Italy's first case of covid was the 21st. Our carnival was the 25th.

This only proves one thing. You seriously overestimate the importance and relevance of carnival.


I not disagreeing, our carnival visitors is like a regular week of Bajan tourist arrivals.

But I was saying testing worldwide back then was not up to scratch, we didn't know the prevalence of asymptomatics either. So I think it's highly possible we had a handful of covid +ve persons who come here and we're fortunate it didn't go viral.

We can agree to disagree, it doesn't change much eitherway.
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Re: Coronavirus - COVID-19 - 8511 cases, 146 deaths, 566 active, 7799 recovered in T&T

Postby Dohplaydat » April 14th, 2021, 9:07 pm

redmanjp wrote:^that doh factor in this lockdown does it?


Nope the lockdown's effects will be somewhere between the dotted green (universal masks) and the dotted purple (current projection), but closer to the purple one.

Their next update in a few days will take the lockdown into effect.

I'm seeing it does predict that in the next 2 weeks we'll have 40-50 deaths regardless of the lockdown's effects. That is sombering and should make trinis behave.

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Re: Coronavirus - COVID-19 - 8511 cases, 146 deaths, 566 active, 7799 recovered in T&T

Postby paid_influencer » April 14th, 2021, 9:11 pm

redmanjp wrote:^that doh factor in this lockdown does it?


it doh factor in nava ratri either. Certain areas going to be hot hot spots and don't ask me how I know that they don't wear masks in some houses of worship. Because I know.
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Re: Coronavirus - COVID-19 - 8511 cases, 146 deaths, 566 active, 7799 recovered in T&T

Postby adnj » April 14th, 2021, 9:11 pm

......
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Re: Coronavirus - COVID-19 - 8511 cases, 146 deaths, 566 active, 7799 recovered in T&T

Postby Redress10 » April 14th, 2021, 9:13 pm

No sorry

I was mistaken. Their first cases were on January 31st from two tourists who were from Wuhan, China. Their third case was an italian from who was repatriated to Italy from Wuhan. They started seeing clusters around 21st and recorded their first deaths on the 22nd.

It just goes to show who were the spreaders in Italy. It would have been people connected to the epicenter. People from wuhan would have frequent Italy because its a major tourist destination.

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Re: Coronavirus - COVID-19 - 8511 cases, 146 deaths, 566 active, 7799 recovered in T&T

Postby adnj » April 14th, 2021, 9:14 pm

Dohplaydat wrote:
redmanjp wrote:^that doh factor in this lockdown does it?


Nope the lockdown's effects will be somewhere between the dotted green (universal masks) and the dotted purple (current projection), but closer to the purple one.

Their next update in a few days will take the lockdown into effect.

I'm seeing it does predict that in the next 2 weeks we'll have 40-50 deaths regardless of the lockdown's effects. That is sombering and should make trinis behave.
This model shows twice the number of peak infections per day (1100) as the model from April 4 (570).

The current lockdown may not change the model at all. It was accelerating significantly with no policy changes.

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Re: Coronavirus - COVID-19 - 8511 cases, 146 deaths, 566 active, 7799 recovered in T&T

Postby paid_influencer » April 14th, 2021, 9:20 pm

Redress10 wrote:No sorry

I was mistaken. Their first cases were on January 31st from two tourists who were from Wuhan, China. Their third case was an italian from who was repatriated to Italy from Wuhan. They started seeing clusters around 21st and recorded their first deaths on the 22nd.

It just goes to show who were the spreaders in Italy. It would have been people connected to the epicenter. People from wuhan would have frequent Italy because its a major tourist destination.


redress, you are a young person so I believe it is my duty to teach you. I do not want to, and try to avoid it, but it is a duty.

One thing you will learn as you get older is that people, generally, do not know how much they don't know. In science too, you have to account for the fact there are unknown unknowns in the data.

When it comes to the testing statistics you are quoting, you need to account for how much they didn't know at that time. There was no widespread testing in February 2020, so the data is very sparse. Even the mortality data is sparse because people just weren't looking for it. You'll find most results from chinese travelers because the authorities only tested __________. You can fill in the blank and I will give you 100% marks.

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Re: Coronavirus - COVID-19 - 8511 cases, 146 deaths, 566 active, 7799 recovered in T&T

Postby Redress10 » April 14th, 2021, 9:37 pm

On the 27th of February, the UK had 15 confirmed cases after testing nearly 8000 people. Most of those tests were done on persons who travelled to Wuhan or China or were in contact with such people. After all those tests it was still only 15 positive out of a population of 67 million.

New York first confirmed case was the 1st of March.

Our carnival was the 28th. We are literally not even in the conversation at this point of time.
Last edited by Redress10 on April 14th, 2021, 9:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Coronavirus - COVID-19 - 8511 cases, 146 deaths, 566 active, 7799 recovered in T&T

Postby Dohplaydat » April 14th, 2021, 9:37 pm

adnj wrote:
Dohplaydat wrote:
redmanjp wrote:^that doh factor in this lockdown does it?


Nope the lockdown's effects will be somewhere between the dotted green (universal masks) and the dotted purple (current projection), but closer to the purple one.

Their next update in a few days will take the lockdown into effect.

I'm seeing it does predict that in the next 2 weeks we'll have 40-50 deaths regardless of the lockdown's effects. That is sombering and should make trinis behave.
This model shows twice the number of peak infections per day (1100) as the model from April 4 (570).

The current lockdown may not change the model at all. It was accelerating significantly with no policy changes.
''

Yea I noticed that too. Also the last lockdown we still experienced growth for 4 weeks. With how trinis behaving right now and the more infections happening, this might get really bad over the next month.

We need to speed up vaccinations ASAP.

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