COVID-19 in Trinidad & Tobago (Local Updates & Discussions Only)

[adnj]

the most dangerous virus would be one that spreads silently and kills after a couple of years. think of a "recovered" infection being diabetes-equivalent risk factor and the number of deaths that would create.

there is some suggestion COVID19 has long-term health implications, but we will only really know about 10 years from now. So far nothing confirmed.

The virus that you are describing is HIV.

Covid-19 R0 is 2 to 4, with IFR 0.5% to 2%

Smallpox is R0 is 10 to 20, with IFR of 30%

The only thing that stopped smallpox was a vaccine. Smallpox is likely the deadliest human disease in history. An estimated 300 million died in the 20th century.

[Dohplaydat]

1000+ cases now and to think I thought we'd reach this number by mid September.

and 6 deaths for this wave so far. we will know very soon if this wave is much worse than the first. we had 8 deaths then.. let's see where we'll reach. but 6 in ICU according to this morning update so it definitely looking worse.

Dude we have literally 10x the cases and growing faster than ever, deaths will obviously be more.

The doubling rate was 8 days on August 17 and is still 8 days now. The rate of growth is currently not increasing.

It is reasonable to expect 2000 cases on or about September 3rd.

According to shakes the numbers are growing. Also, there is a backlog of 600 samples so we cannot conclude the growth rate is not increasing.

I so think the rate of increase is slowing but it's still growing just more slowly.

Regardless, the original question was related to how many deaths we can expect.

Some back of the napkin maths here, assuming we average at 50 cases a day until a vaccine is deployed. So maybe 5.5 months...that gives us 50 * 5.5 * 30 = 8250 + the ~1000 active cases at present.

That's 9250 * 3.5% (international death rate) we are looking at just over 300 deaths till this thing is over.

[pugboy]

the last known smallpox wild infected person is actually still alive too, 47yr bangladeshi woman

the most dangerous virus would be one that spreads silently and kills after a couple of years. think of a "recovered" infection being diabetes-equivalent risk factor and the number of deaths that would create.

there is some suggestion COVID19 has long-term health implications, but we will only really know about 10 years from now. So far nothing confirmed.

The virus that you are describing is HIV.

Covid-19 R0 is 2 to 4, with IFR 0.5% to 2%

Smallpox is R0 is 10 to 20, with IFR of 30%

The only thing that stopped smallpox was a vaccine. Smallpox is likely the deadliest human disease in history. An estimated 300 million died in the 20th century.

[The_Honourable]

fyi

[nervewrecker]

1500 cases and is lockdown again?

Same rules apply as last lockdown?

[88sins]

^ A virus with ebola's mortality rate is neither an effective nor smart virus. A virus' main objective is to live and replicate. That cannot happen if the virus kills off the host too quickly. The best killer virus would have few symptoms and be highly contagious... kinda like this plague we're dealing with now.

On a side note, my family and I are still waiting tests results from samples taken on August 14th.

Ever heard the saying "there's more than one way to skin a cat"?

Viruses ensure their survival in multiple ways. One being as you suggested, living within the host for years and not causing to many problems until viral load becomes so high that the host body can't defend against it. HIV and syphilis work like this.

Another method of viruses ensuring their survival is by adopting the some similarities to the hosts cells, so that the hosts immune system doesn't respond to it as a foreign entity invading the hosts body. This is usually done by the virus displaying certain proteins or receptors that are normally found in the hosts body in normally functional cells.

Yet another way viruses ensure their survival, is by becoming exceptionally skilled and successful at being highly contagious, being able to leap from one host to another extremely easily. That's how Ebola survives. One droplet from a cough or a sneeze, a drop of blood or mucus or sweat or a tear making contact with unbroken skin or membranes is enough to transmit it from the current host to a new host.

[Gladiator]

There is going to be no lockdown.... The last one was premature and hidden with ulterior motives.

Trinidad heading to an apocalyptic state.

1500 cases and is lockdown again?

Same rules apply as last lockdown?

[aaron17]

There is going to be no lockdown.... The last one was premature and hidden with ulterior motives.

Trinidad heading to an apocalyptic state.

1500 cases and is lockdown again?

Same rules apply as last lockdown?

Rollbacks yes

[nervewrecker]

There is going to be no lockdown.... The last one was premature and hidden with ulterior motives.

Trinidad heading to an apocalyptic state.

1500 cases and is lockdown again?

Same rules apply as last lockdown?

too soon? Or does this look kinda next week-ish

[pugboy]

all the countries who claimed success for first wave are now getting hit hard in second wave
france, south korea etc
strict enforcing of masks and crowds

meanwhile gg and ttps gone cold
shutting down sauce doubles was their swansong

[Kenjo]

all the countries who claimed success for first wave are now getting hit hard in second wave
france, south korea etc
strict enforcing of masks and crowds

meanwhile gg and ttps gone cold
shutting down sauce doubles was their swansong

Yup people acting like anywhere has been successful . It’s here to stay and no more lockdown . People will die but economically the world has to move around this and ride it through

[shake d livin wake d dead]

If you live/work in or near to Frederick Settlement, keep yuh mc home please. Yes im being harsh but harsh is the only way allyuh does listen

[VexXx Dogg]

If you live/work in or near to Frederick Settlement, keep yuh mc home please. Yes im being harsh but harsh is the only way allyuh does listen

great f**ds?

[pugboy]

industrial estate or the neighbourhood just before ?

If you live/work in or near to Frederick Settlement, keep yuh mc home please. Yes im being harsh but harsh is the only way allyuh does listen

[ST Auto]

No update this morning as yet. Wonder if someone else dead

[ron_28]

I have noticed sometimes when they have a press conference they does always send the updates late

[asmr26]

1 more death
24 more cases
6 in ICU, 5 in HDU

[Dizzy28]

Hong Kong – A man was infected with the coronavirus after recovering from an initial bout in April in what scientists said was the first case showing that reinfection may occur within a few months.

The 33-year-old’s second SARS-CoV-2 infection was detected via airport screening on his return to Hong Kong from Europe this month. Researchers at the University of Hong Kong used genomic sequence analysis to prove that he had been infected by two different strains. The information technology worker didn’t develop any symptoms from his second infection, which might indicate any “subsequent infections may be milder,” the researchers said.https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/ ... 0PTJDV7k2w

[tropi_flakes]

Death count going up...

[tropi_flakes]

Is how they stating this is the results from August 20th to present tho and I'm still waiting on the results from my test taken on the 18th......

[redmanjp]

No update this morning as yet. Wonder if someone else dead

that's usually the case that the update is late when that happens- they say it's too notify the family first before announcing it publicly

[pugboy]

yesterday they said the batch covered to 22nd
now they saying 20th
like they going back to the future

[asmr26]

Waiting on my test result from Aug 14th

[redmanjp]

1 more death
24 more cases
6 in ICU, 5 in HDU

6 was in ICU before, so i wonder if someone else was admitted or the person who died wasn't in ICU

[redmanjp]

Waiting on my test result from Aug 14th

ent there was a backlog of 600 samples?

[redmanjp]

[elec2020]

yesterday they said the batch covered to 22nd
now they saying 20th
like they going back to the future

Imo they making it up as they go.

[ron_28]

notice the number of samples submitted is the same from yesterday evening update

[pugboy]

word is usain bolt positive after a big weekend birthday bram with no masks

[Dohplaydat]

notice the number of samples submitted is the same from yesterday evening update

most testing labs don't work on weekend, which is why monday's are always see the lowest reported cases worldwide.