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Re: Novel Coronavirus - New name "COVID 19"

Postby redmanjp » March 10th, 2020, 1:11 pm

Public transport a big risk- and this actually recommends wearing masks


https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3074351/coronavirus-can-travel-twice-far-official-safe-distance-and-stay

Image

Coronavirus can travel twice as far as official ‘safe distance’ and stay in air for 30 minutes, Chinese study finds

Authorities advise people to stay 1-2 metres apart, but researchers found that a bus passenger infected fellow travellers sitting 4.5 metres away
The scientists behind the research said their investigation also highlighted the importance of wearing face masks because of the length of time it can linger


Stephen Chen
Stephen Chen in Beijing

Published: 10:44pm, 9 Mar, 2020

Note: The study at the centre of this article on the transmission of the coronavirus was retracted on Tuesday by the journal Practical Preventive Medicine without giving a reason. The South China Morning Post has reached out to the paper's authors and will update the article.

The coronavirus that causes Covid-19 can linger in the air for at least 30 minutes and travel up to 4.5 metres – further than the “safe distance” advised by health authorities around the world, according to a study by a team of Chinese government epidemiologists.
The researchers also found that it can last for days on a surface where respiratory droplets land, raising the risk of transmission if unsuspecting people touch it and then rub their face.
The length of time it lasts on the surface depends on factors such as temperature and the type of surface, for example at around 37C (98F), it can survive for two to three days on glass, fabric, metal, plastic or paper.
These findings, from a group of official researchers from Hunan province investigating a cluster case, challenge the advice from health authorities around the world that people should remain apart at a “safe distance” of one to two metres (three to six and a half feet).
Their work was based on a local outbreak case on January 22 during the peak Lunar New Year travel season. A passenger, known as “A”, boarded a fully booked long-distance coach and settled down on the second row from the back.


The passenger already felt sick at that point but it was before China had declared the coronavirus outbreak a national crisis, so “A” did not wear a mask, nor did most of the other passengers or the driver on the 48-seat bus.
Several passengers became infected during the four-hour bus journey.
Several passengers became infected during the four-hour bus journey.
China requires closed circuit television cameras to be installed on all long-distance buses, which provided valuable footage for researchers to reconstruct the spread of the virus on the bus, whose windows were all closed.
“It can be confirmed that in a closed environment with air-conditioning, the transmission distance of the new coronavirus will exceed the commonly recognised safe distance,” the researchers wrote in a paper published in peer-review journal Practical Preventive Medicine last Friday.
The paper also highlighted the risk that the virus could remain afloat even after the carrier had left the bus.
The scientists warned that the coronavirus could survive more than five days in human faeces or bodily fluids.
They said the study proves the importance of washing hands and wearing face masks in public places because the virus can linger in the air attached to fine droplet particles.
“Our advice is to wear a face mask all the way [through the bus ride],” they added.

Hu Shixiong, the lead author of the study who works for the Hunan Provincial Centre for Diseases Control and Prevention, said the security camera footage showed patient “A” did not interact with others throughout the four-hour ride.
But by the time the bus stopped at the next city, the virus had already jumped from the carrier to seven other passengers.
Hong Kong urged to get tough on controls for arrivals from worse-hit countries
These included not only people sitting relatively close to “patient zero”, but also a couple of victims six rows from him – roughly 4.5 metres away.
They all later tested positive, including one passenger who displayed no symptoms of the disease.
After these passengers left, another group got on the bus about 30 minutes later. One passenger sitting in the front row on the other side of the aisle also became infected.

Hu said the patient, who was not wearing a mask, was likely to have inhaled aerosols, or tiny particles, breathed out by the infected passengers from the previous group.
Aerosols are light-weighted particles that are formed from tiny droplets of bodily fluids.
“The possible reason is that in a completely enclosed space, the airflow is mainly driven by the hot air generated by the air conditioning. The rise of the hot air can transport the virus-laden droplets to a greater distance,” said the paper.
After getting off the shuttle bus, the initial carrier got on a minibus and travelled for another hour. The virus jumped to two other passengers, one of whom was also sitting 4.5 metres away from patient “A”.
By the time the study was finished in mid February, patient “A” had infected at least 13 people.
It is generally believed that the airborne transmission of Covid-19 is limited because the tiny droplets produced by patients will quickly sink to the ground.

This belief has prompted the Chinese health authorities to suggest that people should stay a metre apart in public and the US Centres for Disease Control recommend a safe distance of six feet (about 1.8 metres).
The researchers also found that none of those passengers in the two buses who wore face masks were infected.
They said it vindicated the decision to ask people to wear a face mask in public.

“When riding on more closed public transportation such as subways, cars, planes, etc, you should wear a mask all the time, and at the same time, minimise the contact between your hands and public areas, and avoid touching your face before cleaning,” they said.
The researchers also suggested improving sanitation on public transport and adjusting the air conditioning to maximise the volume of fresh air supplied.

They also said interiors should cleaned and disinfected once or twice a day, especially after passengers arrive at the terminal.
A doctor in Beijing involved in the diagnosis and treatment of Covid-19 patients said the study had left some questions unanswered.
For instance, the passengers sitting immediately next to the carriers were not infected, though they were suffering the highest exposure to the disease-bearing aerosols.
“Our knowledge about this virus’s transmission is still limited,” he said.
Last edited by redmanjp on March 10th, 2020, 4:23 pm, edited 3 times in total.

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Re: Novel Coronavirus - New name "COVID 19"

Postby shake d livin wake d dead » March 10th, 2020, 1:50 pm

reports indicate that Jamaica has recorded no1

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Re: Novel Coronavirus - New name "COVID 19"

Postby Dizzy28 » March 10th, 2020, 2:27 pm

shake d livin wake d dead wrote:reports indicate that Jamaica has recorded no1


Yea the Gleaner reported on it
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Re: Novel Coronavirus - New name "COVID 19"

Postby Ben_spanna » March 10th, 2020, 2:27 pm

YUP- Jamaica!
Lady landed there from the UK on the 4th MArch , and had to be checked on the 9th , as she was sick.... so she was there for a funeral which means during her 5 days there im sure she would have been with family or close friends in an intimate setting.... now we will probably see more cases there.

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Re: Novel Coronavirus - New name "COVID 19"

Postby Duane 3NE 2NR » March 10th, 2020, 2:35 pm

KINGSTON, Jamaica — Jamaica today confirmed its first imported case of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) here in Kingston.

Below is the statement from Minister of Health and Wellness Dr Christopher Tufton regarding the patient:

The patient is a Jamaican female who had travelled from the United Kingdom, which has cases of COVID-19. She arrived in the island on March 4, presented to the public health system on March 9, and has been in isolation since then.

Based on the patient's travel history and symptoms, health professionals suspected COVID-19. A clinical sample was collected and sent to the National Influenza Centre, where laboratory tests confirmed the diagnosis today at approximately 11:00 am. The patient and family members have been informed.

The patient's infection was travel-related. However, steps are being taken to prevent the risk of community spread.

From http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/latestne ... ofile=1605

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Re: Novel Coronavirus - New name "COVID 19"

Postby Picasso » March 10th, 2020, 2:48 pm

Heard they found a corona in Port of Spain General.

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Re: Novel Coronavirus - New name "COVID 19"

Postby redmanjp » March 10th, 2020, 2:52 pm

should we be looking at clusters of outbreaks in otherwise 'low-risk' countries? and banning ppl who have come from/through them in the past 2 weeks? like Washington which has a dozen or so deaths already.
Last edited by redmanjp on March 10th, 2020, 4:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Novel Coronavirus - New name "COVID 19"

Postby Picasso » March 10th, 2020, 3:14 pm

One recent study shows the Virus appears where there are humans.

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Re: Novel Coronavirus - New name "COVID 19"

Postby dogg » March 10th, 2020, 3:47 pm

Jamaica reports first case

KINGSTON, Jamaica — Jamaica today confirmed its first imported case of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) here in Kingston.

Below is the statement from Minister of Health and Wellness Dr Christopher Tufton regarding the patient:

The patient is a Jamaican female who had travelled from the United Kingdom, which has cases of COVID-19. She arrived in the island on March 4, presented to the public health system on March 9, and has been in isolation since then.

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Re: Novel Coronavirus - New name "COVID 19"

Postby teems1 » March 10th, 2020, 4:08 pm

So Jamaica was able to get results within 24 hours.

I wonder if Trinidad would be able to, or even has the capability to test.

Do we even have an equivalent of Jamaica's National Influenza Center?

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Re: Novel Coronavirus - New name "COVID 19"

Postby redmanjp » March 10th, 2020, 4:44 pm

anyone still say this is no worse than flu?

the combination of high infectiousness & lethality rate makes this worse


https://www.nationalreview.com/the-morning-jolt/yes-coronavirus-is-worse-than-the-flu/

Yes, Coronavirus Is Worse Than the Flu
By JIM GERAGHTY
March 10, 2020 10:11 AM

South Korean soldiers in protective gears sanitize shacks at Guryong village in Seoul, South Korea, March 3, 2020. (Heo Ran/Reuters)
On the menu today: how the coronavirus is both more deadly and more contagious than the seasonal flu, wondering about the track record of “old warhorse” presidential candidates, and Mike Bloomberg breaks some more promises.

Why We Fear the Coronavirus More Than the Seasonal Flu

“There have only been [insert current number here] coronavirus cases, way fewer cases and deaths than the flu!”

As mentioned a few days ago, the term “going viral” means something that “spreads rapidly through a population by being frequently shared with a number of individuals.” This means numbers don’t grow steadily and gradually. They grow quickly and exponentially.

According to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control, the coronavirus primarily spreads when someone coughs or sneezes and the droplets get on someone else. The secondary way of spreading is by touching contaminated surfaces or objects.

There is some research from Chinese epidemiologists indicating that the virus may spread much easier than originally thought:

The coronavirus that causes Covid-19 can linger in the air for at least 30 minutes and travel up to 4.5 metres – further than the “safe distance” advised by health authorities around the world, according to a study by a team of Chinese government epidemiologists.

The researchers also found that it can last for days on a surface where respiratory droplets land, raising the risk of transmission if unsuspecting people touch it and then rub their face.

The length of time it lasts on the surface depends on factors such as temperature and the type of surface, for example at around 37C (98F), it can survive for two to three days on glass, fabric, metal, plastic or paper.

This research is fascinating and ominous. On January 22, an infected passenger boarded a fully booked long-distance coach and settled down on the second row from the back. He stayed on the bus for four hours and the windows remained closed. Reviewing security camera footage, the researchers found the passenger did not interact with anyone else. The person next to him was not infected, but he did infect two people behind him, one person three rows ahead of him, four people who were six to seven rows ahead of him, and one person who got on the bus after the initial passenger disembarked.

Scientists are still getting a handle on how contagious the coronavirus is, but the current estimate of the R0 (reproduction number) is between 2 and 2.5 — meaning that the average infected person spreads it to two or two-and-a-half people. For the seasonal flu, the R0 is about 1.3 people.

Coronavirus cases in the United States and broader world are not going to stay level; they may eventually level off, but we are probably a ways away from anything resembling “herd immunity” — that is, when a significant enough portion of a population is immune to a disease, making it more difficult for a disease to spread. In the absence of dramatic steps to reduce people’s interaction with each other, the number of cases will continue to increase.

Scientists are still calculating the death rate from the coronavirus, and the death rate is probably going to continue to vary from country to country depending upon the country’s quality of medical care and preparedness. But it is already clear that the coronavirus is much more deadly than the usual seasonal flu.

The CDC’s current estimate of the death rate for the flu in the 2018–2019 flu season is 35.5 million cases, and about 34,000 deaths. That is a death rate just shy of 0.1 percent, or one out of every 1,044 people.

Many doctors and public-health officials strongly suspect that there are a lot of Americans walking around who have already caught the coronavirus and are asymptomatic — and they either will not show symptoms, or they will suffer such mild symptoms that they won’t even realize they have it. As of this writing, the United States has 729 cases and 26 deaths. That comes out to a 3.5 percent death rate. That’s 35 out of 1,000 people.

Because there are people walking around who have it and who aren’t tested, it is possible that when all is said and done, the U.S. death rate will be significantly lower. But any way you slice it, the death rate for the coronavirus is significantly higher than the death rate for the seasonal flu. And with both coronavirus and seasonal flu, those most at risk are the elderly and the immunocompromised.

There is an odd tone to some of the commentary around the virus. Ann Coulter declares, “Average age of the coronavirus dead in Italy (the country they’re using to scare Americans since it’s European): 81.”


What the hell is this, Logan’s Run? I guess your perspective on the coronavirus being particularly dangerous to octogenarians depends upon how many people you know who are in their eighties or approaching it. We’ve got about 13 million Americans over age 80. About 1.5 million Floridians are in their eighties. Sure, a death toll among the elderly, who have hopefully lived full lives, is somewhat less tragic than a virus that cuts people down in their prime or children. But that doesn’t make it any less sad or worth attempting to prevent or mitigate. A virus that has even a 2 percent death toll among elderly Americans is going to mean a lot of funerals.

But wait, there’s another factor to take into account. It is surprisingly difficult to get a reliable and recent figure for the number of Americans who are immunodeficient, immunocompromised, or otherwise have immune systems that wouldn’t be able to fight off the coronavirus. A 2008 estimate puts it at ten million Americans — and that’s only counting those with HIV/AIDS (diagnosed and undiagnosed), organ transplant recipients, and cancer patients.

Secondly, the elderly and immunocompromised who are infected but survive are going to use up a lot of beds and time in intensive care units, and that will have far-reaching effects for those who are well under age 80. As Christopher Mims puts it, “If we don’t collectively slow the rate of spread of this virus, what he called suppression, it endangers everyone else because of the capacity crunch: People who need surgery. People who have accidents. Cancer patients. Everyone who would normally use our healthcare system.” Every resource put towards controlling coronavirus is a resource that can’t be used towards other health problems.

Some good news is that South Korean health officials have found that so far, “only about 10 percent of coronavirus patients required hospitalization, while the rest had strong enough immune systems to fight the virus on their own.”

When people ask, “Why isn’t there this kind of panic over the seasonal flu?” the answer is, “Because the coronavirus is both more deadly and more contagious than the seasonal flu.” As noted above, the death rate for the seasonal flu is one in a thousand; the current coronavirus figure is roughly 35 in a thousand. Even if that’s elevated because we’re not testing enough, if the figure is cut in half, you’re at 17 in a thousand — or nearly one out of every fifty.

For what it’s worth, the death rate in Italy is currently at 5 percent — one in 20!


Italy is more or less in lockdown. Japan is preparing steps to instruct residents to remain indoors. Major countries do not shut down their populations because of media hype or a desire to make the American president look bad.

This is why we have to “flatten the curve.” We — ordinary citizens — have to take those basic steps of washing hands frequently and avoiding big gatherings, to reduce the rate of increase in cases, delay the peak of cases, and ensure that the hospital systems don’t get overwhelmed.

The number of people who are currently insisting that preparedness is panic is amazing. None of us want a public-health disaster, but part of being responsible is being ready for the worst-case scenarios and taking action to ensure the worst-case scenarios don’t come to pass. We have a lot of mayors of Amity and Chip Dillers among us.
Last edited by redmanjp on March 10th, 2020, 4:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Novel Coronavirus - New name "COVID 19"

Postby adnj » March 10th, 2020, 4:44 pm

teems1 wrote:So Jamaica was able to get results within 24 hours.

I wonder if Trinidad would be able to, or even has the capability to test.

Do we even have an equivalent of Jamaica's National Influenza Center?
The test for Jamaica came from Trinidad.

---------------

Port of Spain, Trinidad and Tobago.  7 March 2020.  The Caribbean Public Health Agency (CARPHA) has the only CARICOM regional reference laboratory accredited to test for the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) and also the only laboratory that can confirm positive or negative results in Trinidad and Tobago.

We continue to actively work with Ministries of Health in our Member States to provide confirmatory tests for COVID-19.

This is undertaken in strict accordance with guidance and recommendations of the Pan American Health Organization/ World Health Organization (PAHO/WHO) and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). 

Our laboratories are fully equipped and ready to test samples of suspected cases of COVID-19, and Member States have specific protocols to follow in their investigation process which includes sending the samples to CARPHA. 

We therefore advise the public to be extremely careful and vigilant when using private laboratory services as conflicting or inconsistent results (false- positive or negative) can be obtained.  Please check with your Ministry of Health to verify which laboratory is authorized for testing COVID-19 samples.

CARPHA also urges everyone to take proper precautions for protecting their health. 

More information about protective measures against the new coronavirus can be found on the CARPHA website.

16-18 Jamaica Blvd,
Federation Park,
Port of Spain,
Trinidad & Tobago

[URL]http://carpha.org/
[/URL]

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Re: Novel Coronavirus - New name "COVID 19"

Postby Dohplaydat » March 10th, 2020, 5:07 pm

redmanjp wrote:anyone still say this is no worse than flu?

the combination of high infectiousness & lethality rate makes this worse


https://www.nationalreview.com/the-morning-jolt/yes-coronavirus-is-worse-than-the-flu/

Yes, Coronavirus Is Worse Than the Flu
By JIM GERAGHTY
March 10, 2020 10:11 AM

South Korean soldiers in protective gears sanitize shacks at Guryong village in Seoul, South Korea, March 3, 2020. (Heo Ran/Reuters)
On the menu today: how the coronavirus is both more deadly and more contagious than the seasonal flu, wondering about the track record of “old warhorse” presidential candidates, and Mike Bloomberg breaks some more promises.

Why We Fear the Coronavirus More Than the Seasonal Flu

“There have only been [insert current number here] coronavirus cases, way fewer cases and deaths than the flu!”

As mentioned a few days ago, the term “going viral” means something that “spreads rapidly through a population by being frequently shared with a number of individuals.” This means numbers don’t grow steadily and gradually. They grow quickly and exponentially.

According to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control, the coronavirus primarily spreads when someone coughs or sneezes and the droplets get on someone else. The secondary way of spreading is by touching contaminated surfaces or objects.

There is some research from Chinese epidemiologists indicating that the virus may spread much easier than originally thought:

The coronavirus that causes Covid-19 can linger in the air for at least 30 minutes and travel up to 4.5 metres – further than the “safe distance” advised by health authorities around the world, according to a study by a team of Chinese government epidemiologists.

The researchers also found that it can last for days on a surface where respiratory droplets land, raising the risk of transmission if unsuspecting people touch it and then rub their face.

The length of time it lasts on the surface depends on factors such as temperature and the type of surface, for example at around 37C (98F), it can survive for two to three days on glass, fabric, metal, plastic or paper.

This research is fascinating and ominous. On January 22, an infected passenger boarded a fully booked long-distance coach and settled down on the second row from the back. He stayed on the bus for four hours and the windows remained closed. Reviewing security camera footage, the researchers found the passenger did not interact with anyone else. The person next to him was not infected, but he did infect two people behind him, one person three rows ahead of him, four people who were six to seven rows ahead of him, and one person who got on the bus after the initial passenger disembarked.

Scientists are still getting a handle on how contagious the coronavirus is, but the current estimate of the R0 (reproduction number) is between 2 and 2.5 — meaning that the average infected person spreads it to two or two-and-a-half people. For the seasonal flu, the R0 is about 1.3 people.

Coronavirus cases in the United States and broader world are not going to stay level; they may eventually level off, but we are probably a ways away from anything resembling “herd immunity” — that is, when a significant enough portion of a population is immune to a disease, making it more difficult for a disease to spread. In the absence of dramatic steps to reduce people’s interaction with each other, the number of cases will continue to increase.

Scientists are still calculating the death rate from the coronavirus, and the death rate is probably going to continue to vary from country to country depending upon the country’s quality of medical care and preparedness. But it is already clear that the coronavirus is much more deadly than the usual seasonal flu.

The CDC’s current estimate of the death rate for the flu in the 2018–2019 flu season is 35.5 million cases, and about 34,000 deaths. That is a death rate just shy of 0.1 percent, or one out of every 1,044 people.

Many doctors and public-health officials strongly suspect that there are a lot of Americans walking around who have already caught the coronavirus and are asymptomatic — and they either will not show symptoms, or they will suffer such mild symptoms that they won’t even realize they have it. As of this writing, the United States has 729 cases and 26 deaths. That comes out to a 3.5 percent death rate. That’s 35 out of 1,000 people.

Because there are people walking around who have it and who aren’t tested, it is possible that when all is said and done, the U.S. death rate will be significantly lower. But any way you slice it, the death rate for the coronavirus is significantly higher than the death rate for the seasonal flu. And with both coronavirus and seasonal flu, those most at risk are the elderly and the immunocompromised.

There is an odd tone to some of the commentary around the virus. Ann Coulter declares, “Average age of the coronavirus dead in Italy (the country they’re using to scare Americans since it’s European): 81.”


What the hell is this, Logan’s Run? I guess your perspective on the coronavirus being particularly dangerous to octogenarians depends upon how many people you know who are in their eighties or approaching it. We’ve got about 13 million Americans over age 80. About 1.5 million Floridians are in their eighties. Sure, a death toll among the elderly, who have hopefully lived full lives, is somewhat less tragic than a virus that cuts people down in their prime or children. But that doesn’t make it any less sad or worth attempting to prevent or mitigate. A virus that has even a 2 percent death toll among elderly Americans is going to mean a lot of funerals.

But wait, there’s another factor to take into account. It is surprisingly difficult to get a reliable and recent figure for the number of Americans who are immunodeficient, immunocompromised, or otherwise have immune systems that wouldn’t be able to fight off the coronavirus. A 2008 estimate puts it at ten million Americans — and that’s only counting those with HIV/AIDS (diagnosed and undiagnosed), organ transplant recipients, and cancer patients.

Secondly, the elderly and immunocompromised who are infected but survive are going to use up a lot of beds and time in intensive care units, and that will have far-reaching effects for those who are well under age 80. As Christopher Mims puts it, “If we don’t collectively slow the rate of spread of this virus, what he called suppression, it endangers everyone else because of the capacity crunch: People who need surgery. People who have accidents. Cancer patients. Everyone who would normally use our healthcare system.” Every resource put towards controlling coronavirus is a resource that can’t be used towards other health problems.

Some good news is that South Korean health officials have found that so far, “only about 10 percent of coronavirus patients required hospitalization, while the rest had strong enough immune systems to fight the virus on their own.”

When people ask, “Why isn’t there this kind of panic over the seasonal flu?” the answer is, “Because the coronavirus is both more deadly and more contagious than the seasonal flu.” As noted above, the death rate for the seasonal flu is one in a thousand; the current coronavirus figure is roughly 35 in a thousand. Even if that’s elevated because we’re not testing enough, if the figure is cut in half, you’re at 17 in a thousand — or nearly one out of every fifty.

For what it’s worth, the death rate in Italy is currently at 5 percent — one in 20!


Italy is more or less in lockdown. Japan is preparing steps to instruct residents to remain indoors. Major countries do not shut down their populations because of media hype or a desire to make the American president look bad.

This is why we have to “flatten the curve.” We — ordinary citizens — have to take those basic steps of washing hands frequently and avoiding big gatherings, to reduce the rate of increase in cases, delay the peak of cases, and ensure that the hospital systems don’t get overwhelmed.

The number of people who are currently insisting that preparedness is panic is amazing. None of us want a public-health disaster, but part of being responsible is being ready for the worst-case scenarios and taking action to ensure the worst-case scenarios don’t come to pass. We have a lot of mayors of Amity and Chip Dillers among us.


Three things to note though:
1. It is worse than the flu when you look at the mortality rates, but for most persons getting Covid-19, the symptoms are not as severe as the flu. This is bad though as if you don't feel that sick, you'll go about your daily life and spread it to others.

2. Flattening the curve is a good idea so we don't overwhelm health services. But it's leading to panic and fear-mongering. the area under the curve is still the same. You will eventually get it, just a matter of time.

This one is important
3. Many many cases of Covid are going unreported and untested simply because for most, the virus isn't that bad. I have friends in NY. Guy said most of his office is sick. But they're used to having the flu run rampant this time of year. He said, not a single sick person in his office has gotten tested because they're not willing to take the time off, they don't want to be quarantined and it's just too much trouble if they're not feeling all that bad. It's the attitude of many in the first world. Hence why the death rate will seem high, we're dividing by tested cases, not total number of cases.

Moral of the story if you suspect you have Covid, go get tested.

Wear a mask and PLEASE practice hygenic etiquette. Stay away from older people as well. The Risk of death rises with age, diabetes and heart disease

Read more: https://www.newscientist.com/article/22 ... z6GK476NkB

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Re: Novel Coronavirus - New name "COVID 19"

Postby redmanjp » March 10th, 2020, 5:14 pm

16-18 Jamaica Blvd,


daz why dey testing here?

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Re: Novel Coronavirus - New name "COVID 19"

Postby redmanjp » March 10th, 2020, 5:19 pm

Dohplaydat wrote:
redmanjp wrote:anyone still say this is no worse than flu?

the combination of high infectiousness & lethality rate makes this worse


https://www.nationalreview.com/the-morning-jolt/yes-coronavirus-is-worse-than-the-flu/

Yes, Coronavirus Is Worse Than the Flu
By JIM GERAGHTY
March 10, 2020 10:11 AM

South Korean soldiers in protective gears sanitize shacks at Guryong village in Seoul, South Korea, March 3, 2020. (Heo Ran/Reuters)
On the menu today: how the coronavirus is both more deadly and more contagious than the seasonal flu, wondering about the track record of “old warhorse” presidential candidates, and Mike Bloomberg breaks some more promises.

Why We Fear the Coronavirus More Than the Seasonal Flu

“There have only been [insert current number here] coronavirus cases, way fewer cases and deaths than the flu!”

As mentioned a few days ago, the term “going viral” means something that “spreads rapidly through a population by being frequently shared with a number of individuals.” This means numbers don’t grow steadily and gradually. They grow quickly and exponentially.

According to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control, the coronavirus primarily spreads when someone coughs or sneezes and the droplets get on someone else. The secondary way of spreading is by touching contaminated surfaces or objects.

There is some research from Chinese epidemiologists indicating that the virus may spread much easier than originally thought:

The coronavirus that causes Covid-19 can linger in the air for at least 30 minutes and travel up to 4.5 metres – further than the “safe distance” advised by health authorities around the world, according to a study by a team of Chinese government epidemiologists.

The researchers also found that it can last for days on a surface where respiratory droplets land, raising the risk of transmission if unsuspecting people touch it and then rub their face.

The length of time it lasts on the surface depends on factors such as temperature and the type of surface, for example at around 37C (98F), it can survive for two to three days on glass, fabric, metal, plastic or paper.

This research is fascinating and ominous. On January 22, an infected passenger boarded a fully booked long-distance coach and settled down on the second row from the back. He stayed on the bus for four hours and the windows remained closed. Reviewing security camera footage, the researchers found the passenger did not interact with anyone else. The person next to him was not infected, but he did infect two people behind him, one person three rows ahead of him, four people who were six to seven rows ahead of him, and one person who got on the bus after the initial passenger disembarked.

Scientists are still getting a handle on how contagious the coronavirus is, but the current estimate of the R0 (reproduction number) is between 2 and 2.5 — meaning that the average infected person spreads it to two or two-and-a-half people. For the seasonal flu, the R0 is about 1.3 people.

Coronavirus cases in the United States and broader world are not going to stay level; they may eventually level off, but we are probably a ways away from anything resembling “herd immunity” — that is, when a significant enough portion of a population is immune to a disease, making it more difficult for a disease to spread. In the absence of dramatic steps to reduce people’s interaction with each other, the number of cases will continue to increase.

Scientists are still calculating the death rate from the coronavirus, and the death rate is probably going to continue to vary from country to country depending upon the country’s quality of medical care and preparedness. But it is already clear that the coronavirus is much more deadly than the usual seasonal flu.

The CDC’s current estimate of the death rate for the flu in the 2018–2019 flu season is 35.5 million cases, and about 34,000 deaths. That is a death rate just shy of 0.1 percent, or one out of every 1,044 people.

Many doctors and public-health officials strongly suspect that there are a lot of Americans walking around who have already caught the coronavirus and are asymptomatic — and they either will not show symptoms, or they will suffer such mild symptoms that they won’t even realize they have it. As of this writing, the United States has 729 cases and 26 deaths. That comes out to a 3.5 percent death rate. That’s 35 out of 1,000 people.

Because there are people walking around who have it and who aren’t tested, it is possible that when all is said and done, the U.S. death rate will be significantly lower. But any way you slice it, the death rate for the coronavirus is significantly higher than the death rate for the seasonal flu. And with both coronavirus and seasonal flu, those most at risk are the elderly and the immunocompromised.

There is an odd tone to some of the commentary around the virus. Ann Coulter declares, “Average age of the coronavirus dead in Italy (the country they’re using to scare Americans since it’s European): 81.”


What the hell is this, Logan’s Run? I guess your perspective on the coronavirus being particularly dangerous to octogenarians depends upon how many people you know who are in their eighties or approaching it. We’ve got about 13 million Americans over age 80. About 1.5 million Floridians are in their eighties. Sure, a death toll among the elderly, who have hopefully lived full lives, is somewhat less tragic than a virus that cuts people down in their prime or children. But that doesn’t make it any less sad or worth attempting to prevent or mitigate. A virus that has even a 2 percent death toll among elderly Americans is going to mean a lot of funerals.

But wait, there’s another factor to take into account. It is surprisingly difficult to get a reliable and recent figure for the number of Americans who are immunodeficient, immunocompromised, or otherwise have immune systems that wouldn’t be able to fight off the coronavirus. A 2008 estimate puts it at ten million Americans — and that’s only counting those with HIV/AIDS (diagnosed and undiagnosed), organ transplant recipients, and cancer patients.

Secondly, the elderly and immunocompromised who are infected but survive are going to use up a lot of beds and time in intensive care units, and that will have far-reaching effects for those who are well under age 80. As Christopher Mims puts it, “If we don’t collectively slow the rate of spread of this virus, what he called suppression, it endangers everyone else because of the capacity crunch: People who need surgery. People who have accidents. Cancer patients. Everyone who would normally use our healthcare system.” Every resource put towards controlling coronavirus is a resource that can’t be used towards other health problems.

Some good news is that South Korean health officials have found that so far, “only about 10 percent of coronavirus patients required hospitalization, while the rest had strong enough immune systems to fight the virus on their own.”

When people ask, “Why isn’t there this kind of panic over the seasonal flu?” the answer is, “Because the coronavirus is both more deadly and more contagious than the seasonal flu.” As noted above, the death rate for the seasonal flu is one in a thousand; the current coronavirus figure is roughly 35 in a thousand. Even if that’s elevated because we’re not testing enough, if the figure is cut in half, you’re at 17 in a thousand — or nearly one out of every fifty.

For what it’s worth, the death rate in Italy is currently at 5 percent — one in 20!


Italy is more or less in lockdown. Japan is preparing steps to instruct residents to remain indoors. Major countries do not shut down their populations because of media hype or a desire to make the American president look bad.

This is why we have to “flatten the curve.” We — ordinary citizens — have to take those basic steps of washing hands frequently and avoiding big gatherings, to reduce the rate of increase in cases, delay the peak of cases, and ensure that the hospital systems don’t get overwhelmed.

The number of people who are currently insisting that preparedness is panic is amazing. None of us want a public-health disaster, but part of being responsible is being ready for the worst-case scenarios and taking action to ensure the worst-case scenarios don’t come to pass. We have a lot of mayors of Amity and Chip Dillers among us.


Three things to note though:
1. It is worse than the flu when you look at the mortality rates, but for most persons getting Covid-19, the symptoms are not as severe as the flu. This is bad though as if you don't feel that sick, you'll go about your daily life and spread it to others.

2. Flattening the curve is a good idea so we don't overwhelm health services. But it's leading to panic and fear-mongering. the area under the curve is still the same. You will eventually get it, just a matter of time.

maybe so, but delaying when the peak of the outbreak happens will both save lives and keep the healthcare system from crashing (which itself saves more lives)- and hopefully by then we may at least have a treatment

Moral of the story if you suspect you have Covid, go get tested. but what is the criteria here in T&T? only travel related cases? so what about community transmission?


Wear a mask and PLEASE practice hygenic etiquette. Stay away from older people as well. The Risk of death rises with age, diabetes and heart disease

Read more: https://www.newscientist.com/article/22 ... z6GK476NkB


South Korea is doing widespread testing so yes the fatality rate is less there (i think about 1%) but even that is still 10 times flu's 0.1% rate.

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Re: Novel Coronavirus - New name "COVID 19"

Postby Cantmis » March 10th, 2020, 5:53 pm


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Re: Novel Coronavirus - New name "COVID 19"

Postby 2WNBoost » March 10th, 2020, 5:54 pm

teems1 wrote:So Jamaica was able to get results within 24 hours.

I wonder if Trinidad would be able to, or even has the capability to test.

Do we even have an equivalent of Jamaica's National Influenza Center?


WHO utilizes two (2) testing labs in the Caribbean:

Jamaica - Kingston
Monica Smikle a.i.
Virology Laboratory
Department of Microbiology
University of the West Indies Mona Campus
Kingston 7
Jamaica
Fax: 18769771265

Trinidad and Tobago - Port of Spain
Victoria Moris-Glasgow
Caribbean Epidemiology Centre
16-18 Jamaica Blvd
Federation Park
Trinidad and Tobago
Fax: 18686222792

https://www.who.int/influenza/gisrs_laboratory/national_influenza_centres/national_influenza_centres.pdf?ua=1

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Re: Novel Coronavirus - New name "COVID 19"

Postby shogun » March 10th, 2020, 7:16 pm

The coronavirus that causes Covid-19 can linger in the air for at least 30 minutes and travel up to 4.5 metres – further than the “safe distance” advised by health authorities around the world, according to a study by a team of Chinese government epidemiologists.

The hell?

Strain levelled upped on all fronts, yes.

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Re: Novel Coronavirus - New name "COVID 19"

Postby paid_influencer » March 10th, 2020, 7:49 pm

Jamaicans have to prepare for social distancing

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Re: Novel Coronavirus - New name "COVID 19"

Postby paid_influencer » March 10th, 2020, 8:50 pm

Former Minister Devant Maharaj
13 mins ·

Covid 19 in Trinidad?

The Chief Medical officer for Alberta, Canada confirms that one of seven cases of Covid 19 was a person who returned from Trinidad and Tobago.

How can Covid 19 come from Trinidad and Tobago given that Minister Deyalsingh stated that there are no Covid 19 cases in Trinidad and Tobago? Is the CEO of Alberta Health or Deyalsingh wrong?

Devant Maharaj

https://edmonton.ctvnews.ca/mobile/video?clipId=1918964


I watched the video, Devant's story checks out. A confirmed positive COVID19 case was in T&T.

This is verified by Canadian health authorities.

edit: reported here
http://www.loopnewsbarbados.com/content ... n-cruise-2

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Re: Novel Coronavirus - New name "COVID 19"

Postby Duane 3NE 2NR » March 10th, 2020, 9:07 pm



69e1ede5-4dcd-49ed-a0cd-fb94b9f197d4.jpg

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Re: Novel Coronavirus - New name "COVID 19"

Postby adnj » March 10th, 2020, 9:09 pm

paid_influencer wrote:
Former Minister Devant Maharaj
13 mins ·

Covid 19 in Trinidad?

The Chief Medical officer for Alberta, Canada confirms that one of seven cases of Covid 19 was a person who returned from Trinidad and Tobago.

How can Covid 19 come from Trinidad and Tobago given that Minister Deyalsingh stated that there are no Covid 19 cases in Trinidad and Tobago? Is the CEO of Alberta Health or Deyalsingh wrong?

Devant Maharaj

https://edmonton.ctvnews.ca/mobile/video?clipId=1918964


I watched the video, Devant's story checks out. A confirmed positive COVID19 case was in T&T.

This is verified by Canadian health authorities.

edit: reported here
http://www.loopnewsbarbados.com/content ... n-cruise-2
"Alberta’s chief medical officer of health, announced seven new cases of novel coronavirus on March 10, bringing the total number of cases in Alberta to 14...

The travellers had returned from visiting a range of countries, including France, the Netherlands, Egypt, Iran, Taiwan, Germany, Malaysia, Trinidad and Tobago, Panama, the Philippines and the United States. 

Hinshaw said as several of the people visited more than one country on their trip, it’s not known where the individuals picked up the virus."

[URL]https://www.rmotoday.com/local-news/covid-19-cases-in-alberta-double-overnight-to-14-2153555
[/URL]

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Re: Novel Coronavirus - New name "COVID 19"

Postby hydroep » March 10th, 2020, 11:34 pm

Deyalsingh and dem probably behind closed doors trying to concoct some C0ck & Bull story about how this happen.

Hope people had a good jump-up yes 'cause the bacchanal now start...:|

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Re: Novel Coronavirus - New name "COVID 19"

Postby j.o.e » March 10th, 2020, 11:49 pm

hydroep wrote:Deyalsingh and dem probably behind closed doors trying to concoct some C0ck & Bull story about how this happen.

Hope people had a good jump-up yes 'cause the bacchanal now start...:|


Trini didn’t fly directly to Alberta. Highly possible they contracted it at any of the airports en route and most likely Houston.
Calm allyuh self and stop getting moist trying to politicize a disease that WILL reach at some point.
Be grateful as far as we know it isn’t confirmed to be here.

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Re: Novel Coronavirus - New name

Postby redmanjp » March 11th, 2020, 1:00 am

j.o.e wrote:
hydroep wrote:Deyalsingh and dem probably behind closed doors trying to concoct some C0ck & Bull story about how this happen.

Hope people had a good jump-up yes 'cause the bacchanal now start...:|


Trini didn’t fly directly to Alberta. Highly possible they contracted it at any of the airports en route and most likely Houston.
Calm allyuh self and stop getting moist trying to politicize a disease that WILL reach at some point.
Be grateful as far as we know it isn’t confirmed to be here.


if u doh test u doh have to confirm eh

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Re: Novel Coronavirus - New name "COVID 19"

Postby Keyser Soze » March 11th, 2020, 1:01 am

2WNBoost wrote:
teems1 wrote:So Jamaica was able to get results within 24 hours.

I wonder if Trinidad would be able to, or even has the capability to test.

Do we even have an equivalent of Jamaica's National Influenza Center?


WHO utilizes two (2) testing labs in the Caribbean:

Jamaica - Kingston
Monica Smikle a.i.
Virology Laboratory
Department of Microbiology
University of the West Indies Mona Campus
Kingston 7
Jamaica
Fax: 18769771265

Trinidad and Tobago - Port of Spain
Victoria Moris-Glasgow
Caribbean Epidemiology Centre
16-18 Jamaica Blvd
Federation Park
Trinidad and Tobago
Fax: 18686222792


https://www.who.int/influenza/gisrs_laboratory/national_influenza_centres/national_influenza_centres.pdf?ua=1



For Trinidad the information highlighted above is outdated.
Caribbean Epidemiology Centre (CAREC) is now Caribbean Public Health Agency (CARPHA) and the person mentioned has long retired.
Once your medical practitioner/health centre/hospital etc suspects by initial testing that you may be infected then a sample is sent to CARPHA for confirmation.
The public can't just walk in for testing there.
just a FYI

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Re: Novel Coronavirus - New name "COVID 19"

Postby screwbash » March 11th, 2020, 3:39 am

why dem kants in govt doh ban and stop all incoming flights into trinidad for a month and let we c what going on with the rest of the world. who outside dey tell dem come home and quarantine they mc , whatever financial loss in 30 days will be small compared to this virus entering trinidad and forking we up, we health care cant handle this , trini doh listen and go spread it, our food stock cannot handle this we go be up sheit street. people go still be able to go to work and school etc, incoming goods can be sanitized before leaving the port an we jus shut dowl all incoming human travelers. come on PM and minister of NATSEC prevention is better than cure.

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Re: Novel Coronavirus - New name "COVID 19"

Postby 2WNBoost » March 11th, 2020, 3:58 am

Keyser Soze wrote:
2WNBoost wrote:
teems1 wrote:So Jamaica was able to get results within 24 hours.

I wonder if Trinidad would be able to, or even has the capability to test.

Do we even have an equivalent of Jamaica's National Influenza Center?


WHO utilizes two (2) testing labs in the Caribbean:

Jamaica - Kingston
Monica Smikle a.i.
Virology Laboratory
Department of Microbiology
University of the West Indies Mona Campus
Kingston 7
Jamaica
Fax: 18769771265

Trinidad and Tobago - Port of Spain
Victoria Moris-Glasgow
Caribbean Epidemiology Centre
16-18 Jamaica Blvd
Federation Park
Trinidad and Tobago
Fax: 18686222792


https://www.who.int/influenza/gisrs_laboratory/national_influenza_centres/national_influenza_centres.pdf?ua=1



For Trinidad the information highlighted above is outdated.
Caribbean Epidemiology Centre (CAREC) is now Caribbean Public Health Agency (CARPHA) and the person mentioned has long retired.
Once your medical practitioner/health centre/hospital etc suspects by initial testing that you may be infected then a sample is sent to CARPHA for confirmation.
The public can't just walk in for testing there.
just a FYI

Thanks for the update, now advise the WHO to update their website

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Re: Novel Coronavirus - New name "COVID 19"

Postby sekhar_777 » March 11th, 2020, 4:27 am

https://www.guardian.co.tt/news/new-canadian-covid-case-returned-from-tt-6.2.1076397.a35b5ab792

The Chief Medical officer for Alberta, Canada confirms that one of seven cases of Covid 19 was a person who returned from Trinidad and Tobago.
Still too early to say where it was contracted, but still unsettling.

https://edmonton.ctvnews.ca/mobile/video?clipId=1918964

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Re: Novel Coronavirus - New name "COVID 19"

Postby shake d livin wake d dead » March 11th, 2020, 4:39 am

Italy made of the greatest moves I have ever seen regarding this virus : don't pay any mortgages during the coronavirus lock down...........dammmmmmm

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