OFFICIAL STOCK MARKET (TTSE) THREAD

[bluefete]

Over 15 years ago, my broker told me not to buy Jamaican stock.

Good thing I did not listen to him.

I have cleaned up with NCB Jamaica - now JMMB since.

Key rule, buy cheap and hold.

[neilsingh100]

Over 15 years ago, my broker told me not to buy Jamaican stock.

Good thing I did not listen to him.

I have cleaned up with NCB Jamaica - now JMMB since.

Key rule, buy cheap and hold.

I am very skeptical about Jamaican stocks (NCBJ & JMMB) given the huge increases (300% return) over last 5 years. Can someone explain the fundamentals and how they can sustain growth and these lofty prices/valuations? The Jamaica economy is growing at 2% and dollar continues to depreciate (I see in the MPC APO they using 140 JMD to 1USD).

[PariaMan]

Over 15 years ago, my broker told me not to buy Jamaican stock.

Good thing I did not listen to him.

I have cleaned up with NCB Jamaica - now JMMB since.

Key rule, buy cheap and hold.

Same here JMMB has been very good to.me over the years

[Ragnor]

Over 15 years ago, my broker told me not to buy Jamaican stock.

Good thing I did not listen to him.

I have cleaned up with NCB Jamaica - now JMMB since.

Key rule, buy cheap and hold.

I am very skeptical about Jamaican stocks (NCBJ & JMMB) given the huge increases (300% return) over last 5 years. Can someone explain the fundamentals and how they can sustain growth and these lofty prices/valuations? The Jamaica economy is growing at 2% and the dollar continues to depreciate (I see in the MPC APO they using 140 JMD to 1USD).

I'll give an example of NCBFG. The company has an ROA above 2 and ROE (adjusted) above 20. Which is ridiculously good for a bank/financial company. Additionally, most of the companies are growing earnings inorganically e.g NCBFG made 4 acquisitions alone this year outside of Jamaica.

The earnings and revenue growth fuel dividend growth which common and shows no indicator of declining which is what is fuelling the demand for their stocks. It may come down eventually but not anytime soon. Valuation is in line with expectations unless they make another big acquisition.

Jamaica's debt is also declining. Debt to GDP is below 100% for the first time in years. Which leaves more room for government to pursue economic growth due to the reduction in interest payments and principal.

You can read more here:-https://valuecritic.com/NCBFG/

[bluefete]

Thanks Ragnor. Good assessment (as usual).

Let me add as well, that there was a time when the price of the NCBJ stock went well below what I paid for it. I did not panic but just hunkered down based on their stategic initiatives.

I think we miss the fact that the IMF, as well, recently lauded Jamaica for their economic recovery. (IMBERT, where are you?)

[snatman]

re: NCBFG

a couple years ago, NCBFG's majority owner (Michael Lee-Chin), to profit from his holdings attempted to list NCBFG on the NYSE.

The attempt was a failure, there was no interest. International investors deemed the shares risky, overvalued, and too centralised in Jamaica. The plan was scuttled.

Since then Lee-Chin has been been doing all he can to expand NCBFG's footprint. It now owns majority interest in a Cayman bank, and also as we all know GHL as well as other smaller entities.

Chin-Lee will no doubt again attempt to list NCBFG internationally. But first the capital base has to be solidified so I expect a rights issue shortly. If this is successful we'll see NCBFG again pushing an international listing by Q3 2020.


As an aside, I hear that GHL had a blowout 3rd quarter.... so things looking nice for NCBFG in the medium term!

[neilsingh100]

re: NCBFG

a couple years ago, NCBFG's majority owner (Michael Lee-Chin), to profit from his holdings attempted to list NCBFG on the NYSE.

The attempt was a failure, there was no interest. International investors deemed the shares risky, overvalued, and too centralised in Jamaica. The plan was scuttled.

Since then Lee-Chin has been been doing all he can to expand NCBFG's footprint. It now owns majority interest in a Cayman bank, and also as we all know GHL as well as other smaller entities.

Chin-Lee will no doubt again attempt to list NCBFG internationally. But first the capital base has to be solidified so I expect a rights issue shortly. If this is successful we'll see NCBFG again pushing an international listing by Q3 2020.


As an aside, I hear that GHL had a blowout 3rd quarter.... so things looking nice for NCBFG in the medium term!

Why not just buy GHL? What about JMMB? What is the risks/reward with the APO?

[snatman]

Why not just buy GHL? What about JMMB? What is the risks/reward with the APO?

Today's Express (Nov 4,2019) has Bourse's take on the APO. Yeah, GHL ratios look good to me...

[snatman]

FirstCaribbean International Bank has been acquired by The Gilinksi Group out of Colombia. This acquisition includes locations in 16 Caribbean countries including the Barbados headquarters, Antigua, Aruba, Bahamas, Cayman, Curacao, Dominica, San Martin among others

source:
https://caymanmarlroad.com/business/col ... buys-fcib/

[Rockram]

Why not just buy GHL? What about JMMB? What is the risks/reward with the APO?

Today's Express (Nov 4,2019) has Bourse's take on the APO. Yeah, GHL ratios look good to me...

Apparently the JMMB APO was well received because they are closing the offer early on both exchanges...... Oversubscription!

[PariaMan]

Why not just buy GHL? What about JMMB? What is the risks/reward with the APO?

Today's Express (Nov 4,2019) has Bourse's take on the APO. Yeah, GHL ratios look good to me...

Apparently the JMMB APO was well received because they are closing the offer early on both exchanges...... Oversubscription!

Yea and shares on the open market selling at 2.00 which is above the 1.90 price

[neilsingh100]

Why not just buy GHL? What about JMMB? What is the risks/reward with the APO?

Today's Express (Nov 4,2019) has Bourse's take on the APO. Yeah, GHL ratios look good to me...

Apparently the JMMB APO was well received because they are closing the offer early on both exchanges...... Oversubscription!

Yea and shares on the open market selling at 2.00 which is above the 1.90 price

I know I will regret this in the short term but going to sit this one out. NCBFG and JMMB story seems too good to be true.

[bluefete]

Why not just buy GHL? What about JMMB? What is the risks/reward with the APO?

Today's Express (Nov 4,2019) has Bourse's take on the APO. Yeah, GHL ratios look good to me...

Apparently the JMMB APO was well received because they are closing the offer early on both exchanges...... Oversubscription!

Yea and shares on the open market selling at 2.00 which is above the 1.90 price

I know I will regret this in the short term but going to sit this one out. NCBFG and JMMB story seems too good to be true.

In the long run, donkey years from now, you will not get JMMB stock for $2.00 far less $1.90

[neilsingh100]

Why not just buy GHL? What about JMMB? What is the risks/reward with the APO?

Today's Express (Nov 4,2019) has Bourse's take on the APO. Yeah, GHL ratios look good to me...

Apparently the JMMB APO was well received because they are closing the offer early on both exchanges...... Oversubscription!

Yea and shares on the open market selling at 2.00 which is above the 1.90 price

I know I will regret this in the short term but going to sit this one out. NCBFG and JMMB story seems too good to be true.

In the long run, donkey years from now, you will not get JMMB stock for $2.00 far less $1.90

JMD continues to depreciate against the USD plus at some point they will run out of acquisitions to fuel growth and p/e multiples will have to compress but in the short term there should be some upside.

[PariaMan]

Why not just buy GHL? What about JMMB? What is the risks/reward with the APO?

Today's Express (Nov 4,2019) has Bourse's take on the APO. Yeah, GHL ratios look good to me...

Apparently the JMMB APO was well received because they are closing the offer early on both exchanges...... Oversubscription!

Yea and shares on the open market selling at 2.00 which is above the 1.90 price

I know I will regret this in the short term but going to sit this one out. NCBFG and JMMB story seems too good to be true.

In the long run, donkey years from now, you will not get JMMB stock for $2.00 far less $1.90

JMD continues to depreciate against the USD plus at some point they will run out of acquisitions to fuel growth and p/e multiples will have to compress but in the short term there should be some upside.

Pal of mine has been in the Jamaican market for last couple of years and has made insane amount of money

Some shares there have appreciated more than 400 percent

I inside with JMMB if I can make a lil 20000 in a couple of months I will be satisfied

[Ragnor]

Analysis of MPC Rights Issue

Full Article here : https://valuecritic.com/mpc-trinidad-jamaica-clean-energy/

Concerns

Beyond the risks mention in both the IPO and the rights issue prospectus, other concerns that weren’t considered are,



1) Revenue & Income Projections – seed asset utilization has not been fully realized, as such revenue projections for fiscal 2019 are behind IPO estimates. MPC-CCEL receives approximately 24 percent of all distributions made by the investment company (which holds direct interests in the seed assets). Pre IPO, the company identified three additional projects beyond Paradise Park and Tilawind. While the prospectus did identify that these projects offered a “preliminary indication” of the type of investments the investment company will be making, the status nor the viability of these projects or other projects have not been adequately addressed post IPO. Additionally, administrative expenses have exceeded projected budgeted costs given rise to concerns of how effective capital is being deployed and how costs are covered amongst investment groups. After-tax income for 2019 is expected to significantly miss estimates given the seasonality in earnings and extreme rises in administrative costs. Additionally, whether the company can maintain its high dividend payout given the uncertainty in future profitability is surely questionable.


2) Unforeseen Events/ Natural Disasters - Hurricanes, storms, flooding, and earthquakes are amongst the leading natural disasters occurring along the Caribbean Basin. In 2016, Hurricane Matthew devastated the country of Jamaica and 6 years prior, the Dominican Republic was rocked by a 7.0 earthquake. Given that the investment company will be seeking to invest in projects with a 20 year-plus life cycle the probability of a natural disaster damaging a project’s infrastructure is highly likely especially since most of these investments are exposed to the natural elements. Additionally, this probability increases as the investment company have identified projects within the Caribbean hurricane zone as it seeks to minimize its geographical exposure to a single region or country. How these occurrences will affect generating capacity and in turn, the investment company’s revenues have already been noted early on within the year. Whether the PPA between seed asset’s management and its customers, addresses these issues are unknown.


3) Project Viability – while many countries will be seeking to incorporate a certain percentage of renewable energy into their energy infrastructure, the technology is far from perfect as the generating capacity and maintenance costs associated with renewable energy projects are an issue. Within the Caribbean, the average tariff per kilowatt/hour is approximately USD$0.33. Solar and wind projects on average for energy importers within the Caribbean costs USD$13.5 kWh however, this figure becomes more uneconomical when compared to energy exporters like Trinidad and Tobago and Costa Rica. Additionally, energy capacity becomes an issue as scalability becomes a key factor for renewable energy projects. For example, solar energy efficiency has risen above 20 percent within recent years whereas natural gas has an efficiency above 90 percent. To increase generating capacity more solar and wind technology would be needed to be implemented. This would become an issue amongst smaller/hilly islands seeking to preserve their ecosystem.


MPC-CCEL has also identified countries such a Trinidad and Tobago as a potential target for its renewable energy agenda however further projects would only come at the expense of taxpayers, as Trinidad and Tobago have a surplus capacity above 380 MW due to the closure of Mittal Steel, the Aluminum Plant, and Petrotrin. This reduces the pool of potential investment targets as the investment company seeks to minimize its geographical exposure along the Caribbean Basin.

[snatman]

NGL tanking...

pitiful looking 9mth report.

Back to $20?

[PariaMan]

NGL tanking...

pitiful looking 9mth report.

Back to $20?

Depends on the dividend I think

If they are able to pay a good dividend it may help stabilize the share price

[Rockram]

NGL tanking...

pitiful looking 9mth report.

Back to $20?

Depends on the dividend I think

If they are able to pay a good dividend it may help stabilize the share price

They certainly have the cash reserves to pay the usual Dividends, the thing is its not sustainable with earnings so off par.

[Rockram]

Panic selling? 23.49

[snatman]

Panic selling? 23.49

Shareholders are right to be panicking.

EPS will be down 50% at least when full results are out.

Par price might be between $15 and $19

[neilsingh100]

Q3 results were horrible but seems like institutional investors not selling. I think it is a buy at 20.

[Ragnor]

Q3 results were horrible but seems like institutional investors not selling. I think it is a buy at 20.

Worst since IPO. IPO Price was 21 and was valued at 18 at IPO. So 18-20 is a good buy

https://youtu.be/SZu9KiKVA4Q

[Ragnor]

National Flour Mills Q3 2019 Results.

https://youtu.be/BwfzAQOEkG0

[bluefete]

I read NFM's 3rd 1/4 results and could not believe the garbage Nigel Romano put out as an excuse. He said that an investigation is underway into the gross profit margin drop.

You mean to tell me that NO ONE in the Executive at NFM realized that their revenue dropped by $20 MILLION Y-O-Y, until the results came out? Really?

Sept 2018 (9mths) - revenue - $323 million Sept 2019 (9mths) - revenue - $303 million December 2019 (year) - Revenue - $432 million

Of course this impacetd their gross profit margins.

That is definite lorse wuk!

So what were they doing? Collecting their fat salaries and perks and smiling all the way to the bank while the company underperformed?

I do not have shares in NFM but that excuse was just too much.


See below - Got to point #2 for the results.

https://www.stockex.co.tt/controller.ph ... ckCode=112

[snatman]

NCBFG volume
wow... Who's buying this up at top dollar?

Is there another acquisition in the works? RBC maybe?? who knows...


cuz right now 10.85 looks exorbitant in the short term...

[Rockram]

NGL tanking...

pitiful looking 9mth report.

Back to $20?

Depends on the dividend I think

If they are able to pay a good dividend it may help stabilize the share price

They certainly have the cash reserves to pay the usual Dividends, the thing is its not sustainable with earnings so off par.

Now trading at APO price 21...thinking about it

[pugboy]

Republic agm is next month
Looking to go, never went a agm in my life
After owning shares donkey years

[pugboy]

could be folks looking to cash in

I see witco share split went thru as of yesterday,
sometimes share splits cause a little rise in price even though it technically not supposed to matter numbers wise

NCBFG volume
wow... Who's buying this up at top dollar?

Is there another acquisition in the works? RBC maybe?? who knows...


cuz right now 10.85 looks exorbitant in the short term...

[snatman]

GHL, NCBFH moving up with volume...

Is there a GHL acquisition in the works? Scotia insurance maybe??

A 2fer1 with NCBFG buying Scotiabank Guyana?

something is up....

Meanwhile my NEL gamble has been a disaster

could be folks looking to cash in

I see witco share split went thru as of yesterday,
sometimes share splits cause a little rise in price even though it technically not supposed to matter numbers wise

NCBFG volume
wow... Who's buying this up at top dollar?

Is there another acquisition in the works? RBC maybe?? who knows...


cuz right now 10.85 looks exorbitant in the short term...