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DVSTT
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Re: Short/long term investments/retirement policies etc advi

Postby DVSTT » July 14th, 2015, 8:59 am

nemesis12 wrote:Well then...



Saw them advertising it but I didn't pay much attention to it.

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Re: Short/long term investments/retirement policies etc advi

Postby daas » July 14th, 2015, 9:02 am

They even extended the subscription date...In hindsight that should have been the first indicator that the IPO wasn't going well

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Re: Short/long term investments/retirement policies etc advi

Postby Redman » July 14th, 2015, 4:02 pm

It was a sheitty offering

and it got what it deserved....

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Re: Short/long term investments/retirement policies etc advi

Postby DVSTT » July 14th, 2015, 10:01 pm

You all think the common man living in trinidad, would experience economic pressure because of the falling oil prices and lessening global demand for it? Or would our under ground economy be able to keep us afloat?

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Re: Short/long term investments/retirement policies etc advi

Postby francis1979 » July 15th, 2015, 4:41 pm

Yes.
For two reasons:
1) minor reason: Standard of living for common man in Trinidad is dependent on subsidies and from government. With reduction of revenues from oil and gas; government will have no choice but to cut some of the subsidies. The reason I said minor is because I am not sure what section of the population u are referring to. It can be anywhere from food grant, school books, gate, baby grant, free travel for pensioners , old age pension , taxes, events sponsorship, etc.
2) major reason: consumer spending / jobs is interdependent on major projects. As an example the highway project; is not only supporting and directly impacted people such as sub-contractors. But sub- contractors need services so they will go to a next business for service A. Service A Requires assistance from service B. Service B buys stuff from service C. You get the idea now. Eventually it comes down to someone employed at service c who now has a job and can enjoy the finer things of life. Like a jeans from the man with a small store.

tough times will call for tough decisions. ( remember 1986 with Robinson/ NAR)

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Re: Short/long term investments/retirement policies etc advi

Postby DVSTT » July 15th, 2015, 5:39 pm

francis1979 wrote:Yes.
For two reasons:
1) minor reason: Standard of living for common man in Trinidad is dependent on subsidies and from government. With reduction of revenues from oil and gas; government will have no choice but to cut some of the subsidies. The reason I said minor is because I am not sure what section of the population u are referring to. It can be anywhere from food grant, school books, gate, baby grant, free travel for pensioners , old age pension , taxes, events sponsorship, etc.
2) major reason: consumer spending / jobs is interdependent on major projects. As an example the highway project; is not only supporting and directly impacted people such as sub-contractors. But sub- contractors need services so they will go to a next business for service A. Service A Requires assistance from service B. Service B buys stuff from service C. You get the idea now. Eventually it comes down to someone employed at service c who now has a job and can enjoy the finer things of life. Like a jeans from the man with a small store.

tough times will call for tough decisions. ( remember 1986 with Robinson/ NAR)


I understand what you're saying.
As they are expecting a cut from oil revenue, would you expect them to introduce a property tax as well as increase taxes else where so as to compensate for the reduction in funding or perhaps more IPOs? I know no government would be willing to drop social handouts as they'll basically be dropping votes.
Also how would money laundering factor in when local business demand drops further due to the dwindling economy? Would the money from illegitimate gains be able to cushion the blow of the reduction in legitimate business? Would the laundered money find it's way into the economy and be able to fill some of the gaps?
I was not even a thought in 1986 so I can't remember NAR. I have no background in economics so I'm just trying to understand how all this works, my apologies if it's too much questions.

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Re: Short/long term investments/retirement policies etc advi

Postby zoom rader » July 16th, 2015, 3:56 am

^^^ Unlike most tuners on here, I lived through NAR times. It was trough, if you had a good permanent job you was able to cope. During those times new car sales was the slowest. Those that could not cope migrated. Mostly those that did not prepare for hard times was hit the hardest. In a way NAR made unemployed ppl turn to be being self employed and running their own businesses . These days ppl have it easy and still b-itch and complain. I keep telling trinis to save and invest. I don't think trinis are ready and can cope with another session like in NAR times.
NAR got the brunt of it for putting pressure on trinis and it was the correct thing to do.
Money laundering in my view experienced a take off after NAR came out of office. It was early 1990s that saw this happen. Trinis got smart and looked for new ways to make money, it all came from a recession and a new avenue into money.

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Re: Short/long term investments/retirement policies etc advi

Postby francis1979 » July 16th, 2015, 4:01 am

Old document ; but a good read on T&T dependency on oil and gas.
http://www.iadb.org/res/publications/pu ... SI-116.pdf


A good read for information on economic recessions
http://www.eccb-centralbank.org/PDF/SAML13.pdf

Some clippings from the above document

Furthermore, some of the extended recessions in the later sub-periods were very long. The Guyana economy was in recession from 1982-1985; the Jamaican economy from 1973-1980, the Trinidad and Tobago economy from 1985-1989

Trade, specifically world petroleum prices, caused a massive deterioration in the terms of trade of oil importers in the mid-1970s, modified in part only by a brief rise in world prices for sugar. World prices for crude petroleum (West Texas Intermediate) rose from $4 per barrel in August 1973 to $10 in January 1974 and increased even more steeply to peak at $38 per barrel in January 1981. This unprecedented rise in petroleum prices set in train cost-push inflation which undermined export competitiveness and in some countries also led to foreign exchange rationing which reduced production capacity.

In 1982, world petroleum prices began to decrease, falling by mid-1986 to $8 per barrel i.e. to a level less than one quarter of the previous peak. For Trinidad and Tobago, this was calamitous. The economy was stuck with import price inflation derived from manufactured goods imports and a much weaker domestic goods (non-tradables) sector in the face of a sharp fall in its commodity terms of trade and of exports in current prices. The result was an economic recession of major proportions, both in terms of magnitude and duration.

NAR

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationa ... nstruction

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The National Alliance for Reconstruction (NAR) was the governing party in Trinidad and Tobagobetween 1986 and 1991.

HistoryEdit

The party was established in 1986, aiming to be a multi-racial party.[1] It was formed by former People's National Movement members and opposition parties,[1] including the Organisation for National Reconstruction (a party established in by PNM dissident Karl Hudson-Phillips in 1980), the United Labour Front, the Democratic Action Congress and the Tapia House Movement – the latter three having previously been part of an electoral pact known as the National Alliance.

The new party won the 1986 elections, taking around 66% of the national vote (the first time the PNM had failed to win over 50% since 1956)[2] and winning 33 of the 36 seats in the Trinidad and Tobago. A. N. R. Robinson, previously leader of the DAC, became Prime Minister.

The NAR entered government with broad national support and goodwill, but support declined as fiscal austerity and neo-liberal economic policies imposed by the International Monetary Fund's Structural Adjustment Program resulted in increased unemployment and a 10% cut in salaries in the public service. Infighting over government posts and economic policies split the party and some ministers defected after a single year in power.[1] In 1988 former ULF leader Basdeo Panday was expelled, taking with him five other former ULF members to form the Indian-dominated United National Congress.[3] Subsequently a further five MPs defected to become independents.

In 1990 the Jamaat al Muslimeenattempted to capitalise on the dissatisfaction with an attempted coup. Despite surviving the attempted coup the NAR was defeated in the 1991 general elections, winning only two seats, both in Tobago.

Involvement with IMF

http://www.thedominican.net/articles/stabilization.pdf

Largely as a consequence of the stabilization measures undertaken by the government of Trinidad and Tobago, the public sector deficit was reduced to 4.8 percent of GDP in 1989 compared to 6.4 percent in 1988. The balance of payments strengthened in 1989 largely on account of an increase in petroleum export earnings and increased capital inflows. However, economic activity still declined during that year, and unemployment rose slightly to above 22.4 percent.

In 1990 and 1991 the country returned to positive economic growth of 1.5 and 2.6 percent respectively. The oil shocks of 1992 however seriously undermined growth prospects and negative real GDP was recorded in that year and also in 1993. From 1994 onwards, the economy stabilized and real growth rates of well over 3 percent was realized from that point on.

In 1986 the government of Trinidad and Tobago reduced the public sector wage bill by suspending cost of living allowances and merit pay increases and by reducing nominal public sector wages by 10 percent. A voluntary severance program was also introduced aimed at reducing the size of the public sector. The government also reduced its holdings in several energy companies and liquidated many state enterprises. An attempt was also made at tax reform through the abolishing of several taxes and the introduction of a 15 percent value added tax (VAT) covering all goods and services except for exports and some basic commodities.

Selective credit controls, reserve requirements, and limited open market operations were used by the central bank in an attempt to control the availability of credit. For a certain period, banks wishing to lend to certain state enterprises and statutory authorities would have to consult with the central bank before reaching a decision, and the discount rate was increased as a means of reducing borrowings by commercial banks.

In 1988 faced with a renewed decline in international petroleum prices and a significant bunching of external debt service payments, the government adopted a more comprehensive adjustment program. The program included a 15 percent devaluation resulting in a cumulative depreciation in real effective terms of over 40 percent since the beginning of 1985, sizeable reductions in government expenditure, and increases in the central bank lending rate.

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Re: Short/long term investments/retirement policies etc advi

Postby francis1979 » July 16th, 2015, 4:12 am


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Re: Short/long term investments/retirement policies etc advi

Postby Redman » July 16th, 2015, 7:57 am

We have to look at the drop in oil prices some what neutrally...

We produce and export some-so we receive less.
We also IMPORT various spec crude to blend and make up volume...so we pay less.
Also the Fuel subsidy is based on the differential in the prices at the pump and the International spot prices ....lower international prices means that differential is smaller.

And for all the demonetization of the NARs policies implemented while they were in power....neither the PNM nor the UNC have reversed any.

We need to be sober in our thinking and see how and where we can develop the SYSTEMS of govt to be more efficient and equitable.

francis...great links.

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Re: Short/long term investments/retirement policies etc advi

Postby francis1979 » July 16th, 2015, 12:00 pm

The documents said that the IMF was recommending to the government to cut spending since 1983. But the then PNM didn't listen.

It was only when NAR came into the power did things go extremely downhill causing the government to run to the IMF for a loan.

IMF has been heavily recommending to the current government to cut subsidies.

While I know conditions from 1980s has changed it makes me wonder if the same thing will not reoccur in the next few years with a depressed oil price

I guess only time will tell

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Re: Short/long term investments/retirement policies etc advi

Postby DVSTT » July 17th, 2015, 4:39 pm

Francis, thank you for the thorough response. I'm reading through the links you posted atm.

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Re: Short/long term investments/retirement policies etc advi

Postby sickbad » July 19th, 2015, 3:11 pm

looking to invest in Bitcoin currency, ride the wave a little and cash out when it's booming or closer to that 21B mark... anybody successful/un with this ?

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Re: Short/long term investments/retirement policies etc advi

Postby francis1979 » July 19th, 2015, 7:57 pm

sickbad wrote:looking to invest in Bitcoin currency, ride the wave a little and cash out when it's booming or closer to that 21B mark... anybody successful/un with this ?


Looks like there is opportunities to make money

However because it is a new system; it carries extremely high risk.

My opinion; stick with traditional investments like stocks

P.s. I consider myself a conservative investor

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Re: Short/long term investments/retirement policies etc advi

Postby Redman » July 20th, 2015, 10:13 am

The world monetary system is evolving-changing as a result of the massive transfer of wealth from the producing nations to the consuming nations..

I would say the Bit Coin investment is a good idea-understanding that it is still RISKY....

Understand that Bit Coin and others challenge the status quo in that they DISTRIBUTE monetary control and change the way MONEY is operationalized.

The Central Banks that have enjoyed Fiat currency control...also make the rules....

So Greece fudged its balance sheet to get into the Euro for consolidation of POLITICAL power...over dosed on loans from the CB and Money center banks....should be kicked out of the Euro but the powers that be changed the rules..

How do you win a contest against the Rule Maker???

My point is that if Bit Coin is successful enough to become a threat....the Central Bank network might very well simply make it illegal....

So be nimble and take your profits until you can afford to lose what you still have invested.
Just my 2 cents

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Re: Short/long term investments/retirement policies etc advi

Postby nervewrecker » July 21st, 2015, 5:28 pm

Gents, I understand Palo seco credit union offers 9% interest.
Heard some coworkers mention it today. Customer service seems pretty good too.


Sent from my Nexus 4 using Tapatalk

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Re: Short/long term investments/retirement policies etc advi

Postby Advent » July 21st, 2015, 5:50 pm

nervewrecker wrote:Gents, I understand Palo seco credit union offers 9% interest.
Heard some coworkers mention it today. Customer service seems pretty good too.


Sent from my Nexus 4 using Tapatalk


So is between them and vcu hmmm..

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Re: Short/long term investments/retirement policies etc advi

Postby DVSTT » July 21st, 2015, 7:57 pm

nervewrecker wrote:Gents, I understand Palo seco credit union offers 9% interest.
Heard some coworkers mention it today. Customer service seems pretty good too.


Sent from my Nexus 4 using Tapatalk


Sounds suspect. Never heard of them either.

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Re: Short/long term investments/retirement policies etc advi

Postby DVSTT » July 23rd, 2015, 12:40 pm

Any developments with PPGPL?

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Re: Short/long term investments/retirement policies etc advi

Postby Redman » July 23rd, 2015, 4:03 pm

whats the inflation rate?

And therefore whats the real rate of return...?

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Re: Short/long term investments/retirement policies etc advi

Postby trinigamer » October 13th, 2015, 10:40 am


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Re: Short/long term investments/retirement policies etc advise

Postby DVSTT » October 4th, 2016, 8:37 am

What's the best way to invest < 30k given the current economic climate? Where offers the best returns?

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Re: Short/long term investments/retirement policies etc advise

Postby rafman » October 4th, 2016, 9:26 am

^^in for info

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Re: Short/long term investments/retirement policies etc advise

Postby Redman » October 4th, 2016, 10:53 am

Well that depends

your time frame ,you risk tolerance, what that 30k means to you.

Its a tough market all over so I would broaden the scope of what to do with the money -away from the financial markets and assess other opportunities.

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Re: Short/long term investments/retirement policies etc advise

Postby desifemlove » October 4th, 2016, 4:04 pm

what's the deal with investing in foreign shares? i thinking of putting a few thousand in a firm like coca-cola or BP, something really big that won't fall down anytime soon. is this a load of stockbroker fees?

and what about foreign govt. bonds? i have a UK passport, so can do UK bonds no scene, but do US Feds allow foreigners to have their bonds? or does the Euro do bonds, or France/Germany?

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Re: Short/long term investments/retirement policies etc advise

Postby X_Factor » October 4th, 2016, 7:22 pm

looking at a long term saving, pretty much for when my son has to go university/tertiary ed
15yrs from now the goal is 300,000
where is the best place to go?
annuity/tisp, long term saving plan, credit union?

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Re: Short/long term investments/retirement policies etc advise

Postby mitsutt » October 4th, 2016, 7:29 pm

X_Factor wrote:looking at a long term saving, pretty much for when my son has to go university/tertiary ed
15yrs from now the goal is 300,000
where is the best place to go?
annuity/tisp, long term saving plan, credit union?


You want to invest monthly?

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Re: Short/long term investments/retirement policies etc advise

Postby DVSTT » October 4th, 2016, 7:37 pm

Redman wrote:Well that depends

your time frame ,you risk tolerance, what that 30k means to you.

Its a tough market all over so I would broaden the scope of what to do with the money -away from the financial markets and assess other opportunities.



I've invested in stocks and invested in fixed deposits so I was looking for a new savings route, a sort of passive income that would hopefully return more than the inflation rate. I'm young and I'm still in school so I really have no need to withdraw from my savings and if ever the need does arrive I have some money in chequing accounts that I can utilise.

I'm just asking for ideas at this point, suggestions. My friend suggested Venture as he said he was getting 4% there which doesn't seem bad to me, and I think it's good for me to build some sort of foundation with a credit union if I do in fact have to take a loan or mortgage at some point. (god forbid).

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Re: Short/long term investments/retirement policies etc advise

Postby desifemlove » October 4th, 2016, 7:43 pm

X_Factor wrote:looking at a long term saving, pretty much for when my son has to go university/tertiary ed
15yrs from now the goal is 300,000
where is the best place to go?
annuity/tisp, long term saving plan, credit union?

some of the banks have student savings, or trust funds.

mutual funds, or medium risk funds also an option.

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Re: Short/long term investments/retirement policies etc advi

Postby desifemlove » October 4th, 2016, 7:48 pm

DVSTT wrote:You all think the common man living in trinidad, would experience economic pressure because of the falling oil prices and lessening global demand for it? Or would our under ground economy be able to keep us afloat?


not just the drug economy. plenty people who does own businesses don't pay full tax, or do a lot of under the table work.

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